How's everyone doing? How's your team doing? And how's your family doing? I hope the answer to all three of the questions is: "well, thanks!" If not, well...I hope I can help with your team, at least. This week is a weird one, I don't really have too many names that haven't been featured on the blog, but that's alright. We can't have an infinite supply a new, exciting young players. Fortunately, there are guys emerging from the shadows, as well as some interesting new combos, that can make some guys more appealing than they previously were. Lamonte Wade Jr., OF, 1B (#1 Choice)
That right there is the statcast of a man that is only 20% owned in Yahoo leagues. Crazy, right? He currently boasts an .896 OPS to go with a ridiculous .470 OBP. Sure, this is not going to be sustainable, but Wade Jr. has shown peripherals and potential approaching this in 2021 (.808 OPS) and in 2023 (.790 OPS). So if you're sitting here thinking about regression, I advise you not to worry too much - LaMonte is legitmately talented, and he's only 30. A breakout is plausible, and he's returning from the IL this week. Now, the drawback of LaMonte thus far has been his counting stat production - how can a guy with a .470 OBP only have 22 runs on the season, even if he's been hurt for several weeks? Well, the Giants offense was miserable up until he got hurt, and then god arrived - Heliot Ramos. Lamonte hasn't had an opportunity to hit at the top of the lineup with Heliot during his breakout, and this can be an absolutely lethal combination going forward. If you're a Heliot owner, do yourself a huge favor and grab LaMonte before it's too late. Then watch them do the fusion dance and destroy fantasy baseball. On a side note, LaMonte is currently hitting .333 against both LHP (.890 OPS) and RHP (.943 OPS), though he only has 12 ABs against LHP.
Trey Cabbage, 1B, OF
Featured last month alongside Heliot and Nick in the blast data piece, Cabbage was kind of the ugly duckling of the batch, not really finding any kind of consistent playing time for the Astros despite putting up beautiful peripherals. We highlighted his excellent bat speed alongside incredible barrel and sweet-spot percentiles. (You can check that out if you want).And above all, Cabbage hits righties, making him instantly viable for teams desperate for 1B or OF help, and as a platoon bat with upside for everyone else. This guy absolutely smacks the shit out of the baseball, and the production is here.
Noelvi Marte, 3B
Here we have a 22 year old 3B that hit .316 with an .822 BA last year, and he's only 25% owned. It almost seems too good to be true, and but sure enough, it is, and I managed to scoop him up a few days ago. And the best part? He hit .317 with an .876 OPS against RHP last year, while still managing a .314 BA against LHP, albeit with a .684 OPS. And with his remarkable 91st percentile speed on top of elite hard-hit rates, Noelvi is more than worth the add. Let's just hope it wasn't the PEDs that enabled him to do this, but we all know it's a possibility.
Trevor Larnach, OF
Just like Cabbage, Larnach was also featured in the blast data piece, and still remains relevant. In fact, I dropped Larnach right before he hit a HR in the double-header due to unfortunate roster crunch. But trust me, I didn't want to drop him. He's excellent against RHP and really only plays against RHP, which is fine if you have the roster space for a guy who will play most days but not all. Again, pair Larnach with someone like Brandon Marsh or Cabbage and you'll find yourself getting more production than you expected. Looking at the statcast, we see yet another guy who absolutely smacks the shit out of the baseball, which is why he was featured in the blast data piece, and which is why he's here again. It's also nice that he's in a productive Twins lineup, yeah?
Hunter Goodman, OF
I've been keeping an eye on Hunter all season, waiting for the power to arrive. I even owned him for a few days at one point, only to realize it just wasn't happening. But now it's happening, and as we can see in the peripherals, his barrel % is at the 90th percentile along with a sweet-spot % that is slowly but surely approaching 50th percentile. The unfortunate news is that he is only good against LHP, so I wouldn't add unless you're looking for a platoon bat. There's better players out there, but who am I to not at least mention a guy that can destroy southpaws. He's worth a stream depending on pitching matchups and whether or not he's at Coors.
Ivan Herrera, C
If you've been following the blog, then you're probably thinking Deja Vu right about now. This is Herrera's 3rd appearance on the blog after an extremely productive week. He's currently hitting a respectable .289 with a .750 OPS against RHP, making him an extremely viable backup or platoon C. Owning Patrick Bailey and Ivan Herrera would give you good production at C for the rest of the season, if you can afford the roster spot. Looking at the peripherals we see a fantastic 77th percentile sweet-spot %, which explains the .279 BA on the season. But beyond that, we also have a 60th percentile barrel %, which means there's another level here if Herrera can continue to improve. Regardless, this guy isn't going to hurt your ratios and if the last week is indicative of any kind of future performance, he is capable of accumulating counting stats.
Ernie Clement, 2B, 3B, SS
Just like Goodman, I also owned Clement for about a week earlier in the season. And not only that, but I wasted around $10 of my $100 budget on him. I was just so enamored with his speed and sweet-spot profile that I thought I was getting another Turang or Doyle. Unfortunately, he stopped performing and his playing time dwindled quickly. Well, now the man has resurfaced, and the tools I appreciated are working. This guy doesn't hit the ball hard, but he hits it well and he has extremely good speed to leg out hits. With the weather warming up, Clement may find a bit of extra carry and that could lead to quite a few doubles. Unfortunately, he can only hit southpaws, which really hurts his potential. Yet another platoon option.
Daniel Schneeman, 2B
After appearing in my last piece, I'm still hopeful for a Schneeman breakout. It's just a matter of whether or not the Guardians decide to give him everyday playing time, which I think he deserves at this point. The sample size still remains small, but the quality shouldn't be ignored. When he gets chances to play, he produces. My intution tells me this is a guy to follow, and the peripherals don't lie (yet.) If there's going to be another hidden gem that breaks out of nowhere, there's a good chance it's Schneeman. Please Guardians, just let this man cook so we can find out what we have.
Jorge Soler
Don't look now, but positive regression may finally be arriving for a guy who hit .250 with 36 HRs and an .853 OPS last year. And fortunately for some desperate owners, this man is only 53% owned right now. With Heliot Ramos emerging, LaMonte Wade on the way back, Bailey and Wisely getting hits, and Soler rounding back into form, Giants hitters are finding themselves in position to snag lots of runs and RBIs these days, a stark contrast to what we saw from the Giants earlier in the season. I think Soler is a decent gamble, even though I'm not a fan of guys who only really hit lefties (though he had a good OPS of .788 against RHP last year). I'd rather own LaMonte for ratios, but maybe the more Giants the merrier? Nah.
Patrick Bailey, C
I've written about Bailey several time this year, and there's not much else to say. Let's just look at that statcast and appreciate how damned good Patrick Bailey is at baseball. Seriously, it's unfair that the Giants get a new Buster Posey right after Posey retires. But here we are, a catcher that is defensively in a class of his own, who also happens to boast a .795 OPS and .286 BA, and he's available in most leagues. Hopefully the Giants realize the switch-hitting backstop shouldn't be resting more than once per week, he's just too good.
Tyler Soderstrom, C, 1B
https://www.gerbilsports.com/post/reviewing-the-season-thus-far-risers-fallers-and-everything-in-between It's wild to think I wrote about Soderstrom over a month ago, when he was barely owned, but here is, finally emerging later than I expected. Everything I wrote about Soderstrom in the above piece applies now. I'll just paste it: "It's 2023, and your fantasy team is really struggling. Judge broke his toe. Jazz is on the IL Wander Franco is a pedophile. You're laying in bed, staring up at the ceiling, wondering if god has forsaken your fantasy team. Then it happens. You get a notifcation about Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom getting called up in the dead of night and sneakily claim them off waivers, thinking you've just picked up your team saviors. Gelof met those expectations, but Soderstrom not so much, despite being the higher-ranked prospect. Well, now it's 2024, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready for the MLB. Across 19 ABs, he already has 6 hits, a HR, and a .929 OPS. Yes, it's a small sample size, but I can tell you right now, this guy was absolutely lost against MLB hitting last year. Seeing any kind of improvement has me optimistic. His statcast shows he's absolutely torched the ball since being called up, and his swing data shows an above average bat speed and contact % to go along with it. He's 22, and he was the A's #1 prospect. This is more likely to be the real Soderstrom. And let's not ignore he has both C AND 1B eligibility. Pick this guy up before he breaks out." Spencer Schwellenbach & Cade Povich Two pitchers I featured last week, and remain the most lucrative options in FA. I went pretty detail into why I thought people were giving up on them too early, and sure enough, they both posted quality starts immediately after. Schwellenbach has two straight quality starts, with his most recent outing being a 7k, 1 run gem. Povich is set to face the Yankees today, so we'll see how that goes (it should go better if Judge rests). I'll paste my analysis of these two here: Schwellenbach
"It's pretty cool that people gave up on Schwellenbach so early, because now he's pretty much available to everyone. Look, his first few starts have been rough, I get it. But his peripherals are actually extremely strong, and if you've been following my blog, you know I love a good perceived velocity, which Schwellenbach has in spades. His whiff rate comes in around the 65th percntile, and his chase rate at a whopping 99th percentile. You would think his K rate would be exemplary, and I believe it will be by the end of the year. We can't talk about the good without talking about the bad - a terrible hard-hit %. I chalk that up to location issues and growing pains, though it's definitely something to monitor. But forget the peripherals for a minute. His fastball has a .357 BA against, despite an xBA of .255. It has a .786 SLG against, despite a .533 xSLG. In fact, all of his expected numbers are much better than the actual results.
I get that those expected numbers aren't necessarily great, but they're still infinitely better than the actual results. Look, this guy is a rookie with some strong peripherals and has had some fairly bad luck on the mound. If he continues to improve, AND his excpected numbers begin to fall in line with actual production, we could be looking at a solid pitcher. I just don't believe this guy has a negative run value fastball, and neither do the Braves.
Povich
Like Schwellenbach, here's another young prospect people cut bait on way too quickly. Unlike Schwellenbach, he excelled at limiting hard contact and really nothing else. And like Schwellenbach, his expected numbers on his primary pitch are much better than the actual numbers. In his first start, he threw his fastball 50% of the time to the tune of a .200 BA against. Solid, right? Well, the xBA of his fastball was an insane .113. That's amazing. So why did he fail, if a pitch he throws 50% of the time was that good? His curveball and cutter both got tagged up real good. They were absolutely demolished, though the xSLG on his curveball isn't nearly as devesating as the cutter. So where does that leave us exactly? Well, for one thing, I absolutely love to see that a pitch he throws 50% of the time and fills the zone with was basically untouchable. Think Bryan Woo or Luis Gil here. I also love to see that two pitches he throws 17% and 16% of the time were his weakness, with the curveball showing really nice potential at a 40% whiff rate. This is all great, because his changeup that he throws 15% of the time was great for him in his first start with a mighty 0.00 BA against. This is some great context. Basically, the Orioles staff has learned that his fastball is fantastic. His cutter sucks, which is fine because it's the most expendable pitch in his arsenal. His curveball shows promising putaway potential. And his changeup was fantastic. There's no reason why he can't go into his next start and simply cut out the cutter, while throwing more changeups. If he decides to go something like 50% fastball, 30% changeup, and 20% curveball, we can expect some very good results. Go get 'em Cade!" Tobias Myers
Tobias was first featured on my blog back on April 28th, and I owned him for a bit. Unfortunately, he didn't play well and got demoted. Since being recalled, he's been nothing but excellent, and was mentioned on last week's watch list. If you're interested in my intitial breakdown of Myers, you can check this. https://www.gerbilsports.com/post/warm-weather-and-warmer-waivers-entering-week-5-and-we-ve-got-some-good-good-pitching
Miles Mikolas
I don't want to call this guy an ace....but....7 quality starts in his last 9 appearances is kind of ridiculous. His veloioty has been up and his 11 run value sinker is absolutely lethal. He's been on the watch list, but it's time to grab this man and hold if you can.
EDIT AND ADDED: Robbie Ray I stashed Ray on my IL 2 weeks ago and completely forgot about him. Look, he's touched 97-98 mph on his fastball, which is the velocity he had when he won a Cy Young, before his velocity decreased and he sucked for Seattle. And he's really not as old as one would think - he's only 32. These days, TJ is extremely potent and pitchers come back arguably stronger than they were before injury. Just add Ray, yeah?
Spencer Bivens
I'm watching him throw some wicked stuff against the Cubs right now, and I believe his statcast will be bright red after this one. He has a 96 mph fastball with 11.7 inches of horizontal break and -4.4 inches vs the average of vertical break.
Brendan Rodgers is on the way back from injury and was playing extremely good baseball prior. He'll most likely be on next week's post.
Julio Rodriquez is mad overrated, no matter how many times you guys downvote me. If your OPS is under .700 by the halfway point, you might just be ruining your owners' seasons. Especially at that ADP.
I just finished an amazing indie rpg called Secrets of Grindea, it just got out of a wild 11 year early access. Highly recommend it if you're into 2d rpgs with skill trees and action combat. Really fun game that is perect to grind while watching baseball.
Speaking of games, Shadow of the Erdtree while watching baseball next week?: Who says no to that. Time to dust off my cheesy sorcerer. What builds do you guys play, and are you going into it on a new game or your OG build?
I'm in 3rd place now, and still first in roto standings. Some of my leaguemates complained about my starting pitching to the league manager after I added Crochet and Skubal through trades. Corny. But I get it, this shouldn't exist in a 14 team league:
All in all, this has been a really fun season, and I'm ready to watch some good pitching today. Good luck.
Comments