Hello friends, and welcome to Week 17's Waiver Wire piece. I think today, we have a few good ones to talk about - guys that will make an impact, you know? Some weeks they're just not really there, but I have a good feeling this time around. I think we have some real game-changers.
Angel Martínez, CLE, 2B, 3B, SS, 70 GS
Add him before it's too late. Hell, before you even read the next sentence. Now that you've added him, let's talk about Cleveland's other version of Kwan. (Edited joke that confused people.) Below you'll see his minor league splits, followed by his MLB splits. What you'll notice is that between both levels of play, Angel has been able to hit both southpaws and righties, though historically he's been better against southpaws. It's extremely encouraging to think he might be able to have an OPS above .750 against both sides and would make him an instant fantasy asset. The fact that he's currently far above those numbers is just icing on the cake. Getting back to his minor league stint, Angel slashed to the tune of a .316 BA and .953 OPS at AAA. He hasn't missed a beat in the MLB...and hitting in front of J-Ram. The profile here is extremely interesting: no barrels and low average exit velocity, but absolutely elite sweet-spot and hard-hit percentiles. This says a few things. First, his contact is consistently good, but also consistently below the launch angle for HRs. Make no mistake, Angel is going to be a guy who hits the ball in the gaps for tons of doubles, and he's going to give you few HRs. Remember, he's hitting in front of Ramirez, so this is going to lead to a ridiculous amount of runs. Secondly, his average exit velocity and hard-hit % almost seem counterintuitive. It may seem weird, but ultimately there's a feast or famine approach here. Angel is hitting the ball hard approximately 47% of the time right now - so what's he doing the other 53% of the time? Well, he's hitting the ball extremely softly. And even these balls do have a chance of finding gaps for singles, which is why we're looking at a .375 BA right now. | You might be thinking: "Bro, he has 16 ABs. This is ridiculous." And that's fine. But because his profile seems to match exactly what he's done in the minors thus far, I'm taking a leap of faith and only looking forward. This guy will continue to see the best pitches to hit with Ramirez behind him, and he's proven he can handle pitches in the strike zone. That's all I need to see, really. And let's all praise the fact that he's eligible at three infield positions.
Spencer Horwitz, TOR, 1B, 2B, 70 GS. About a week ago!, Horwitz came in at a 76 Gerbil Score. This week, he comes in a solid 70. The barrel rates dropped slightly along with the run value, as the Jays offense is completely anemic aside from Horwitz himself. Yet he still managed to put up beautiful ratios with a .360 BA and .950 OPS. We also need to take into account there's some penalties here for poor base-running and sprint speed. So the fact that he still comes in at such an impressive score shows just how highly the formula thinks of his hitting ability. He doesn't whiff. He doesn't K. He rarely chases. And he finds the sweet-spot of the bat nearly 40% of the time he makes contact. It's no surprise he has a .329 BA. His plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills are elite, and he should be away above 22% owned. I hope this is the last time I need to mention this guy.
Matt Wallner, MIN, OF, 2023 GS 78
For many, Matt Wallner was a godsend in 2023. Across 254 PAs, Wallner slashed .249 with a .877 OPS and 14 dingers. He absolutely crushed baseballs and gave us reason to believe he'd be a huge piece for the Twins in 2024. Then he proceeded to hit .115 across a meager 35 PAs before the Twins decided he needed to be sent back to AAA. So how's he done at AAA this year? Well, he's hit 18 HRs to the tune of an .888 OPS. And his splits in the minors? You can see that below his 2023 MLB splits - but it's a .982 OPS against RHP and .605 OPS against LHP. Looks to me like his minor league stats are in accordance with his MLB stats from last year. Matt Wallner is a must-add bench bat that should start whenever the Twins decide to use him - which will be against RHP. This could be one of the best platoon options in all of fantasy baseball if we see 2023 Matt Wallner. I'm also interested to see if his insertion into the lineup can help Larnach see better pitches.
Dane Myers, OF, MIA, 59 GS Dane Myers is someone I first noticed when I was scouting Ryan Weathers, and for one good reason. This man is built like a beast. I even asked my wife " Do you think this guy looks crazy athletic?" Unfortunately, she said yes. Watch a Marlins game and you'll see he's clearly put on muscle in the off-season, out there looking like Julio Rodriguez. And his arm strength has gone from 86th percentile to 96th percentile, a clear indication of this guy being a dawg in the offseason. But it doesn't matter how athletic you are if you can't hit a baseball, right Julio? Dane Myers, at least so far, has been hitting the baseball - to the tune of a .787 OPS and .270 BA. And what we like even more are his sexy splits - a wonderful .832 OPS against RHP to go with a solid .762 OPS against LHP. Looking at his peripherals, we see nice barrel and hard-hit percentiles, clocking in around the 60th percentile, with average-exit velocity trailing not far behind. Combined with his really solid 83rd percentile sprint speed, we now have an extremely toolsy OF who has clear power he's beginning to tap into, and has reverse splits. There's a lot to like here, and if Jazz begins to heat up, these two could really benefit each other. As it stands, Dane Myers might actually be the toolsy OF to own from the Marlins - not Jazz.
Alek Thomas, ARI, OF, 81 GS Out in the desert, a young 24 year old stud may be emerging. Alek Thomas is a strong, athletic OF that can absolutely destroy a baseball. He also specializes against RHP. This guy's power profile is no joke and shouldn't be dismissed, he actually reminds me a lot of Teoscar in terms to approach at the plate. He's been forgotten about due to missing the first 3 months of the season with injury and it may be to the benefit of us that he's on nobody's radar. Definitely take a roll on him as a platoon bench bat. I think he'll be a better power bat than say, Gorman. Just looking at his peripherals, we see some insane stuff. Near max percentiles for xSLG, exit velo, barrel, and hard-hit. Look, there might be regression, but the power is there and it won't go away. And thanks to this guy for a cool write-up on Alek: https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/2/29/24087204/alek-thomas-and-power-optimization Maybe he optimized his power!
Jhonkensy Noel, CLE, 1b, 3b, OF Not much has changed from the last time I included Noel. When he plays, he produces. His power is off the charts and effortless. He hits RHP. If he's in the lineup, he's worth starting. Grab Angel and Noel and get your shares of the CLE lineup before its too late. Hell, grab Schneeman too - the other 1/2 of this platoon. CLE to the moon.
Still Add/ Watch Daniel Schneeman - I'm still super high on Schneeman, but the ABs are limited, especially with the emergence of Jhonkensy. As I said above, if you own both of them, you own an extremely strong player that comes at the cost of two roster spots. It's worth it. Trust me. Zach Gelof - This recent hot stretch by the A's offense has Gelof compiling some nice counting stats. Jack Suwinski - One of my preseason sleepers and someone I actually drafted. He's been inexplicably terrible this season, but finally had a solid week with a 1.3 OPS and 2 HRs. He also hits RHP, so he's someone to monitor for positive second half regression. Lawrence Butler - Lawrence Butler was kind of a statcast meme for the first few months of the season, but positive regression may be showing up. He has an .879 OPS over the last week. Masyn Winn - We all know the deal. Lots of runs, high BA, no power, some steals. A nice backup SS and bench piece. Freddy Fermin - A .301 BA and .791 OPS at C can't be ignored. The statcast and gerbil score aren't particularly good, but he's slowly raising them towards his 2023 percentiles, which were promising. Michael Massey - Getting time at 2B and DH against RHP, he's been quietly nice for KC. Massey's profile is weird, as the peripherals he's excelled at changes each year - barrel and sweet-spot in 2022, sweet-spot and whiff in 2023, and now whiff and K with decent barrel in 2024. It's sneakily impressive, and he has a .278 BA and .804 OPS to show for it. If he finds a way to reclaim the sweet-spot he's had in previous seasons, and not at the expense at what he's excelling at right now, he could be fantastic. Edit: oh, and Brenden Rodgers and Nick Gonzales, just like every week.
Spencer Schwellenbach This guy is really fucking good. I've featured him every week alongside Povich, who has been demoted to the watch list this week after a very poor start that almost cost me my week. But make no mistake - Schwellenbach's statcast was in an entire league of its own, and it's only gotten sexier after his most recent start. I've spoken a lot about all of the different aspects of Schwellenbach I love, including his pitch mix growth over such a short period of time. As he continues to replace his cutter with the sinker, he continues to become a must-own pitcher. Check out the graph below and focus on the salmon colored line vs the orange line - cutter vs sinke usage - and how it's changed since his call-up.
Drew Thorpe After getting beat up Arizona, Thorpe has bounced back nicely to put up 3 straight QS. It seems like anyone who dropped maybe did so a bit too hastily. Looking at the chart, we something interesting that coincides with his June 16th beatdown at hands of AZ - a day where he decided to throw his 4-seam fastball way too often and his changeup far less. He most certainly learned a bit about his pitch mix.
Stream/Watch:
Montas vs COL (Not in Colorado)
Estes @ BOS
Spence @ BOS
Yariel Rodriguez @ SF (Giants offense is sneaky good)
Sears @ BOS
Kyle Freeland @ CIN
Wesneski @ BAL (Risky)
Knack @ PHI ( Don't do it)
Cannon vs MIN
Weirdly unpopular opinions:
Okay, I guess people either don't like me or Kutter.
I think Gil did alright. Impressive slider too.
Wait, are we not all of this opinion? Abrams is amazing. Semien isn't?
Not sure?
コメント