Waiver Wire Week 4 - The Chicken Bones

Just so ya'll know, I may be distracted this week with the Oblivion remake on the way. I can't tell you how excited I am to get back to Cyrodil - it's about as exciting as getting one of these gems from this list! Follow me on Bluesky if you want to chat baseball or Oblivion. Heston Kjerstad By the gods, it's time to rejoice! Heston Kjerstad may finally be getting consistent playing time and the ability to actually find his groove! Sure, he has some ice cold measurements in the plate discipline department - the kid loves to chase and really hates taking walks - but the contact ability is good enough to justify the risk. Also, the whiff % is pretty respectable, coming in at the 55th percentile, and to me that's the most important discipline metric anyway. Do we wish he chased less? Sure. Is it a dealbreaker? Definitely not. One thing to note is that even though Heston is well known to only hit RHP, he currently has a .286 BA against LHP in a small sample size. Sure, they're both singles, but being able to just make contact and help the batting average ratio is a huge improvement for someone who has been relegated to a platoon role. A .286 BA is better than .000!

Eric Wagaman I put in a claim on Wagaman last night and unfortunately was beaten out, causing me to drop to my knees in the middle of Walmart. A kind worker noticed my turmoil, turning to me and asking "what's wrong, sir?", to which I replied "I missed out on Marlins sensation Eric Wagaman." She walked over, knelt down, put her hand on my quivering shoulder, and whispered "you should have known earlier." I guess she wasn't a kind worker afterall...or maybe she's just being honest with her expectations of me. That's the price I pay for spending all of my FAAB, I suppose. Wagaman has been excellent for the Marlins dating back to April 12th and has cemented himself as pretty good breakout candidate in the process. His expected numbers are staggering - .326 for the xBA and .572 for the xSLG. I guess when you come in at the 95th percentule on Squared-Up % on top of 80th percentile Hard-Hit and Sweet Spot marks, you're going to be expected to perform well.

Please note that I did not fall to my knees in the middle of Walmart. That was fiction. But could you have blamed me if I did, after seeing this beautiful statcast?

Dane Myers This man better not break his ankle kicking a door in 2025, because the moment has finally found him. With Griffin Conine out for the foreseeable future with a disclocated shoulder (fucking sucks), Dane Myer will never have a better opportunity than now to cement himself in the Marlins' outfield. I like Dane Myers: he's strong, fast, and extremely under the radar. Breakouts around age 30 are always fun and a good thing for the fantasy baseball community, and that may just be what happens with Dane Myers this year. His .333 BA and .801 OPS are supported by excellent exit velocity, squared up ,and sweet-spot percentages. His Whiff and Hard-Hit rates also comes in slightly above league average, and his sprint speed registers at a nice 84th percentile. There's a lot to like here, particularly his ability to lift the ball, and I think sleeping on Dane Myers could be sleeping on a 5-tool OF option.

Gabriel Arias

Have I come to regret dropping Arias for Meidroth? I like to tell myself "not yet," but that might just be a cope. Sure, Meidroth had a super nice 3 hit, 1 SB game against Garret Crochet, but look at what Arias is doing. His elite bat speed has resulted in some really nice hard contact, and that's gotten him a .270 BA and .821 OPS. I just can't get over that whiff %, I guess; if you're going to be in the 1st percentile for Whiff%, you probably need to have better power metrics than this (like Matt Mervis level.) Between the whiff and square-up %, it seems like begging for trouble with Arias who may not get the ball out each time he makes good contact. However, his psotitional utility and upside still make him extremely appealing. I still recommend Meidroth overall, but I couldn't fault you for choosing Arias.

Mickey Moniak

Mickey "Money" Moniak. Mickey Money-ak. McMoney. Kodak Moniak. These are some of the options we have when Mickey Moniak finally realizes his #1 pick potential and becomes the best COL outfielder since Matt Holliday. And yes, it's definitely going to happen. I know this because I went to a little carnival out in rural Washington with the wife, and there was a fortuneteller stand. Out of curiosity, we asked her what the deal was, and were told "you may ask one question to the bones, and only one. Do not ask hastily...go ride the UFO spinny ride and think on it. " Well, as you probably already know, the only obvious question was immediately apparent, and it was whether or not Mickey Moniak could finally find some consistency at the MLB level. The chicken bones said yes, and here we are. But really, I don't fucking know with this guy. He has every tool you could imagine and displayed tremendous ability in 2023 when he slashed .280 and .802. I heard rumors that Mike Trout wiped Moniak's tootbrush with his butt as a hazing ritual and he was never the same. Who knows. But what I do know? He's extremely fast, and extremely strong, with solid bat speed. Right now, at Coors, his expected numbers are all-star level, and with literally zero pressure on him to perform well because the Rockiers are bad, he might just be ready to play ball.

Kyle Stowers

As soon as Conine went down yesterday, I knew who I'd try to replace him with - Heston Kjerstad. Unfortunately, I lost that bid. So I got Stowers. And that's fine, because honestly, he's better anyway. No, I'm not being biased. Stowers is having a really solid year, and although it seemed like he was cooling off a bit after a blistering start, he had a nice 2/4 game today to confirm he's still got it. There's a lot to like here, but I'd be lying if didn't say his whiff and squared-up % don't flare up my OCD a little bit. I'm a big fan of consistency, and squared up rates, whiff%, and sweet-spot % represent that for me. As you know, squared up % measures how often a player comes close to the predicted max velocity on each individual pitch and the swing speed. Being able to do that consistently is a good thing. It's basically the metric that accounts for the physics of each pitch/swing encounter, and what the batter should be able to do if everything goes well. I won't get too hung up on that for now, because there's so many other things to appreciate here, like the ever-important Barrel and Hard-Hit rates clocking in at the 91st and 89th percentiles. He also walks an incredible amount, and it'd be awesome he started swiping some bags. One can hope.

Kameron Misner

Kameron is pretty well-known after his 2 dinger game, and people are just wondering if he's worth the pickup considering he often sits against LHP. Yes, he's worth it. Misner seems to have a knack for getting on base, even it means legging out tough infield singles, and it's frequently leading to runs. He has extremely solid contact metrics across the board and it's resulted in a .360 BA and .660 SLG. Sure, the expected numbers are a bit less provactive at a .514 xSLG and .275 xBA, but still provactive enough to warrant an add. And the expected numbers also don't account fot DAWG, which Misner has a ton of. He's imposing as fuck in the box and legs it down the line like he thinks he's the second coming of Ichiro Suzuki. I really need to find some numbers on that now that I think about it.

Dustin Harris

Watch Dustin Harris play and you'll immediately see this dude is built like Freedie Freeman and Christian Yelich - long legs and some nice hip movement on the swing. I, for whatever reason, often classify MLB players into physical archetypes while watching games, and the long-leg archetype seems to be pretty potent, though I have no data to back that up. But this is a blog and anecdotes are permitted. Harris has been impressive thus far, slashing for a .300 BA and .550 SLG - which are surprisingly close to his expected numbers. He excels in both Sweet-Spot and Squared-Up percentages, which now that I think about it more closely....really make me want to pick him up. Let me think about it. I actually think Texas has something possibly special here and we should probably all add this kid while we still have the chance. He hasn't even started stealing bases yet....but he had 34 of them at AAA last year.

J.T. Ginn I finally had the opportunity to catch a J.T. Ginn start and came away pretty impressed. His sinker is actually really fucking filthy, and reminds me a lot of a really fast changeup in the way it breaks. His location with it is actually rock-solid and when he missed pitches, he consistently missed an inch or two from the black. His cutter and slider are solid offerings with respectable xBAs of .210 and .231. He may not have stuff that induces a ton of whiffs, but he's still finding ways to make guys chase and more importantly, whiff on the final pitch of an AB. Ginn's willing to live with contact on his sinker, thus the 93rd percentile ground ball percent, but if he gets you in a 2 strike count, you need to be prepared for his putaway cutter. I'm currently rostering Ginn and see a lot of upside, mostly because he has multiple ways to get outs, and that's always lovely.

Watch List: Joe Boyle looked excellent in his first start of the season, striking out 7 over 5 hitless innings and looking like an absolute menace with a devasting splitter-esque pitch. Then, at AAA, he proceeded to throw 6 more hitless innings, to now have 11 straight hitless innings between the MLB and AAA levels. This guy is really fucking nasty, and 100% ready to be a good MLB starter, but I guess that's entirely up to the Rays. The minute there's an injury in that Rays rotation, you absolutely need to make sure you grab this guy. I'll be sure to send out something on Bluesky. Drake Baldwin's production is finally starting to match his blistering hot statcast page as he continues to DH with Ozuna hurt. With Sean Murphy back from injury, we can't be sure how long he'll have this opportunity, but he's certainly making the most of it. He's good. Luke Keaschall wasn't the most enticing callup I've seen, but he's actually been pretty good thus far with a .333 BA, .885 OPS, and 1 SB. His .727 OPS at AAA this year and .832 OPS at AA last year don't exactly jump off the page, but if the kid wants to break out at the MLB level, who am I to argue? Liberatore has been really good, but I'm not sure why. I remain skeptical, the fastball is much more effective this year but remains unchanged from 2024. His fangraph projections are slightly up, but not so much that this would be unsurprising.