June is here and balls are beginning to carry. We're worshipping guys like Nick Gonzales and Heliot Ramos. Brenton Doyle, Renfigo (who I never once featured!) and Turang continue to be some of the best base-stealers in the MLB. Luis Gil, Jared Jones (also escaped me!), Woo, and Suarez are top tier pitchers. Bradish, Gore, and others are close behind - guys I neglected to mention. Relievers are being converted to starters at rates we've never seen. Prospects are being called up in bunches - some bad, some great. We're clearly in the thick of it now. Forget ADP. Abandon sunk cost fallacy. Production is the key. FAP. That's the motto here. Baseball is chaos, and preconceptions don't win seasons. Everyone in the MLB is in the MLB for a reason, and anyone can break out at any time. That's what makes fantasy baseball the best game in the world. Now, a bunch of guys have long since graduated from the blog. Here are the strongest graduates this season. Turangtula Doyle Rules Achilles Gil
Power Ranger Woo Boo Bear Hellboy Heliot Slick Nick
There are others who have found great success or are starting to find it, like Cristopher Sanchez. And there's plenty who have just completely faded from existence. But because we're finding them so early, it's easy to add and drop until one sticks - then you're set for the rest of the season. It's also fun, like catching new Pokemon. I wouldn't want to play fantasy any other way. But I'll be honest with you guys - I'm starting to feel a little overwhelmed. All of this waiver success seems unsustainable, and I'm starting to wonder if the blog is due for some regression. There's a lot of anxiety involved with putting yourself out there like this and sometimes I get a little bit neurotic when it comes to finding these guys, to the detriment of my own mental health. To those who have found me to be abrasive in the sub this past week, I apologize. I've had a tough week. So why do I do this? For the few who keep encouraging me. I would have stopped weeks ago otherwise. Let's see if we can find more, for those folks who love fantasy baseball as much as I do.
Brandon Marsh, OF
It feels kind of odd to be mentioning Marsh for the first time since week one, but after injuring himself last week with a mild hammy strain, he's down to 26% owned. Even then, he's been hovering in the 30%s all year. I find it kind of bizarre, because this guy has been a mainstay on my squad that I wouldn't consider dropping. He's a sure-fire start against RHP - an .884 OPS and .304 BA are exemplary. 70% of pitchers in the MLB are right-handed. I feel like the math here should have him being at least 70% owned in deeper leagues, and platooned with one other bat that can also destroy RHP. On top of the hitting abiility, he bats anywhere from 5th to 7th in a ridiculously potent Phillies lineup, which allows him to rack up counting stats whenever he sees the field. And he has 8 SBs on the season, which shoudn't be disregarded in categories leagues. He plays at the rate of a 25-25 guy against 70% of MLB pitching. And we haven't even mentioned peripherals yet - a tremendous 99th percentile sweet-spot % paired with 55th percentile barrel rate and 93rd percentile Hard-Hit%. I love Brandon Marsh, and he'll be an integral part of my speculative championship run.
Blake Perkins If you added Blake Perkins after I featured him for a second time last week, you ate well. If you're still on the fence, it might be time to climb down. Perkins' speed/sweet-spot combination continues to allow him to get hits, even if the peripherals seem a bit too icy blue. We examined his abilty to constantly square up the ball and make contact, which is elite. With the weather warming up siginficantly, expect the peripherals to warm up as well.
And why just Blake Perkins? Look, this guy has a .270 BA and .750 OPS against RHP. It continues to rise. Brandon Marsh plays the same position, and also mashes RHP. RHP accounts for around 70% of pitching in the MLB. If you roster Blake Perkins and Brandon Marsh, you will statistically have an extremely solid OF every day of the week, and two solid options most days. This is the way.
Lenyn Sosa, 2B, 3B The 24 year old was recently recalled from AAA, and seems to have found a groove at the plate, hitting for 1.005 OPS over his last 14 games. And it's not entirely unexpected - Sosa was absolutely mashing at AAA, to the tune of a .982 OPS and 14 HRs. The one thing about Sosa, though, is that he absolutey decimates LHP and struggles against RHP. If you can afford to carry this guy as a platoon bat against and only play him against LHP, he's nearly guaranteed production. Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, most pitchers are RHP.
Gavin Sheets, 1B, OF Sheets makes his return to the blog after a long hiatus. We knew the statcast looked solid from the very first week of the season, but the production in a barren White Sox lineup was just non-existent. Then the calendar rolled over to June, and the positive regression hit hard for Sheets. He's been excellent this month and has brought his OPS up to a respectable .785. He currently has 28 RBIs on the season, a very strong number for someone who is floating around on Waivers. As the White Sox continue to call up prospects, and with the return of Robert Jr., the ceiling of Sheets continues to rise.
Nick Senzel, 3B, OF
Senzel has been an OBP machine for the Nationals, which has led to some very strong run production. Even in games where he's not getting hits, his incredible 97th percentile BB rate allows him to get on base and provide value. He boasts a .923 OPS against LHP, which makes him an easy start against southpaws. Against RHP, he still gets on base at a .353 clip. Nick Senzel is turning out to be a nice little add here.
Daniel Schneemann, 2B (More to come)
Guardians fans already love this guy, and for good reason. A .385 BA and 1.171 OPS since making his debut, and is a super-utility player? A bright red statcast? Everyone fucking loves guys like this. But of course, we see 18 PAs and understand this sample size says absolutely nothing about who he really is.
But when it comes to guys like this who perform out of the gate, we have to look at minor league numbers to at least see if they suggest this type of performance is sustainable to some degree. Well, this guy has a .984 OPS to go with a .284 BA in AAA this year. Last year, an .800 OPS at AAA. Before that?The stats get worse and worse each year you go back. But this is a good thing. This is a 27 year old who has improved every single year in the minors, and I actually prefer this to the type of AAAA guy you expect to have an .800+ OPS every year at AAA but never succeeds at the MLB level. If you follow his sustained pattern of improvement, he belongs exactly where he is, and is doing what you'd want him to do. And in this Guardians lineup, there is ample opportunity to accumulate counting stats.
Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B
You've probably already guessed by now, but I'm not exactly the biggest fan of guys who mash LHP just from a statistical standpoint. There's fewer opportunities for these guys to thrive. But in the case of Hayes, his hitting against LHP is so potent that he warrants an add for teams that need 3B help. He's hitting an insane .341 with a .436 OBP and .982 OPS against southpaws. It's clear his back injury to start the season really hindered his hitting ability, and he looks more like the Hayes we expected to break-out this year after an incredibly strong finish to his 2023 campaign. And by the end of 2023, he was hitting a respectable .260 against RHP, so there's upside here beyond being a platoon guy. Expect his hard hit rates to climb quickly. Oh, and let's not neglect the 3 SBs over the past week - tremendous value at 3B in categories leagues.
Brandon Lowe, 2B
Lowe has heated up, and his Sweet-Spot % and Barrel % (the strongest peripheral combo there is) is extremely potent. There's a lot to love here, whether it's the production - 7 RBIs and 4 runs over the past week, or the extremely nice statcast. Unfortunately, he's another guy who only mashes lefties - even if it's to the tune of a .975 OPS. Lowe is a premium platoon bat.
Jackson Merrill, OF
It's super fucking weird that I even have to mention this guy, but he went through one cold stretch and that was enough for managers to cut him - he's now under 50% owned. Merrill is slashing .300 with a .750 OPS against RHP as a 21 year old rookie and has solid SB upside. He shows competent sweet-spot and hard-hit rates, with the barrel percentile lagging a bit behind. His whiff rate is tremendous, and as the weather heats up, he's going to be finding more holes when he makes that contact. Overall, we love this kind of speed-contact profile. If he's available in your league, just do yourself a favor and pair him with Brandon Marsh and reap the benefits. It might take two roster spots, but you'll have fantastic matchups most days.
Pitchers
Spencer Schwellenbach
It's pretty cool that people gave up on Schwellenbach so early, because now he's pretty much available to everyone. Look, his first few starts have been rough, I get it. But his peripherals are actually extremely strong, and if you've been following my blog, you know I love a good perceived velocity, which Schwellenbach has in spades. His whiff rate comes in around the 65th percntile, and his chase rate at a whopping 99th percentile. You would think his K rate would be exemplary, and I believe it will be by the end of the year. We can't talk about the good without talking about the bad - a terrible hard-hit %. I chalk that up to location issues and growing pains, though it's definitely something to monitor. But forget the peripherals for a minute. His fastball has a .357 BA against, despite an xBA of .255. It has a .786 SLG against, despite a .533 xSLG. In fact, all of his expected numbers are much better than the actual results.
I get that those expected numbers aren't necessarily great, but they're still infinitely better than the actual results. Look, this guy is a rookie with some strong peripherals and has had some fairly bad luck on the mound. If he continues to improve, AND his excpected numbers begin to fall in line with actual production, we could be looking at a solid pitcher. I just don't believe this guy has a negative run value fastball, and neither do the Braves.
Cade Povich
Like Schwellenbach, here's another young prospect people cut bait on way too quickly. Unlike Schwellenbach, he excelled at limiting hard contact and really nothing else. And like Schwellenbach, his expected numbers on his primary pitch are much better than the actual numbers. In his first start, he threw his fastball 50% of the time to the tune of a .200 BA against. Solid, right? Well, the xBA of his fastball was an insane .113. That's amazing. So why did he fail, if a pitch he throws 50% of the time was that good? His curveball and cutter both got tagged up real good. They were absolutely demolished, though the xSLG on his curveball isn't nearly as devesating as the cutter. So where does that leave us exactly? Well, for one thing, I absolutely love to see that a pitch he throws 50% of the time and fills the zone with was basically untouchable. Think Bryan Woo or Luis Gil here. I also love to see that two pitches he throws 17% and 16% of the time were his weakness, with the curveball showing really nice potential at a 40% whiff rate. This is all great, because his changeup that he throws 15% of the time was great for him in his first start with a mighty 0.00 BA against. This is some great context. Basically, the Orioles staff has learned that his fastball is fantastic. His cutter sucks, which is fine because it's the most expendable pitch in his arsenal. His curveball shows promising putaway potential. And his changeup was fantastic. There's no reason why he can't go into his next start and simply cut out the cutter, while throwing more changeups. If he decides to go something like 50% fastball, 30% changeup, and 20% curveball, we can expect some very good results. Go get 'em Cade!
Mitch Spence
Mitch Spence makes his second consecutive appearance on the blog after a nice quality start and hitting a solid 3.68 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season. I felt bad because the day I posted last week's column, he had a really rough outing. I probably had some people pretty frustrated with me, and how I forced them to add Mitch Spence. But then he twirled a nice little seven inning quality start against the Jays, hopefully redeeming me in the eyes of my readers.
Keep An Eye On Them And Stream:
Drew Thorpe - Loved him as a Yankees prospect, 1.35 ERA at AA. Good luck kid, I'm watching!
JP Sears - Nice cherrybomber. Be careful!
Miles Mikolas - 5 quality starts in last 7 outings. Impressive.
Tobias Myers - Featured in one of my earliest columns and then proceeded to suck. Had a great outing after being recalled. Cody Poteet - Not exactly impressive stuff, but impressive production.
Logan Allen - If you thought Sears was a cherry-bomber, this guy takes it to another level.
I talk a lot of shit and put out lots of crazy takes, so how is my team doing? Well, the Bing Bong Bombers are absolutely running away in the roto standings. I'm currently in 4th place in the H2H standings. Ks: 1st ERA: 3rd WHIP: 2nd K:BB: 6th QS: 1st SV+H: 14th BA: 1st OPS: 1st (tied) SB: 3rd (and climbing fast) HR: 3rd R: 2nd RBI: 1st Yep, I drafted 3 catchers, and I don't own a single reliever. A lot of people shot me down, but I will stand tall!
Also, keep an eye on Yankees prospect Ben Rice, who is advancing through the minors at a ridiculous pace while Rizzo looks completely washed up. We're both another few weeks of bad play, or a Rizzo injury away from possibly seeing this kid. Edit: Also, DJ was featured last week, and I still think he provides excellent value as a R produceer at the bottom of the Yankees lineup with a .350 OBP in front of Volpe, Soto, and Judge.
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