You probably read that title and immediately thought "Yeah, no. Corbin Carroll is the guy." `Alright, alright. He is the guy. Corbin Carroll has been nothing short of excellent this year, showcasing he may be the next premiere five-tool player in the MLB. Flashing tremendous speed and power, Carroll has helped propel the Diamondbacks to relevance. But what if I told you there was another rookie out there who is putting on a clinic at the most valuable position in baseball. What if I told you he plays tremendous defense, constantly produces competitive at bats, and shows fantastic speed and power. What if I told you he plays for the Reds.
It's not Elly De Le Cruz.
It's rookie shortstop Matt McLain, possibly the most underrated player in the MLB this year. Called up several weeks before Elly, McLain has looked like a top five shortstop in baseball. yet garners none of the hype. Let's compare Carroll and McLain real quick so you can get an idea of the player McLain is.
McLain currently has a higher BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG than Carroll. He's accumulated 3.7 bWAR in 393 ABS vs Carroll's 5.7 bWAR in 622 ABs. That's good for .0094 WAR per PA from McLain, and .0091 WAR per PA from Carroll. Yeah, that's virtually the same production.
Fangraphs has them even closer in WAR, with 3.3 fWAR to Carroll's 4.5 fWar. Here, McLain outpaces Carroll quite a bit on a WAR per PA basis. Then, when you look at Statcast, there's a few notable aspects of each player.
As you've probably noticed, Carroll hits the ball quite a bit harder in terms of average exit velocity. So why does McLain have a higher SLG %? The answer lies in the barrel %, with McLain being quite a bit better at the 67th percentile vs Carroll's 44th percentile. In case you didn't know, a Barrel is a combination of exit velocity and launch angle. For McLain, his launch angle is helping him keep pace with the more powerful Carroll, while having a high average Hardhit% is keeping his average around .300.
Both clearly demonstrate great ability at the plate, but they also excel with the glove. McLain has a fantastic 86th percentile OAA, while Carroll rests at 85th percentile. For McLain, being this good in the field at SS makes him extremely valuable and allows him to rack up WAR quickly. Corbin playing LF makes his defensive value slightly lower, though obviously he's still tremendous out there.
And finally, they're both really, really fast. Carroll is well-known for his blazing speed on the base paths and extremely high steal rate. But McLain is no slouch, boasting a 91st percentile sprint speed and swiping 14 bases on his short campaign. As of late, McLain has amped up the SB attempts as he's grown more familiar with the pace of MLB pitching and grown in confidence. Will he ever be a 40-50 SB base guy like Carroll? Maybe not. Will he boast an 80% or higher success rate on attempts? Maybe. But there's little doubt he can be a 30/30 guy as soon as next season with plus defense at the SS position. Carroll will win NL ROTY, rightfully so, because WAR is a cumulative stat and Carroll has played all season. And beyond that, Carroll has been absolutely electric. But make no mistake - there's a rookie out there named Matt McLain, you've never heard of him, and you should remember the name. He may just end up being the best all-around SS in baseball.
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