Hello friends. Some of you, and by some, I mean maybe three people, have wondered why I took last week off. My herniated disc really started acting up and the pain was distracting, and a certain NBC Sports guy who frequents the sub kind of got to me because he kept getting on a burner account to troll. But more than anything, it seems unnecessary to post waiver pick ups every week. Sometimes no player in particular emerges, and the list winds up just repeating names. That's boring, and because this is un-monetized, there's no reason to clickbait. If I don't have enough substance, I'm not going to post. Many of you have enjoyed my lists in deeper leagues and we've found some studs. But make no mistake - I have been far from perfect. Some of the guys I've recommended have really fizzeled why others continue to excel. I want to talk about the fallers, along with the sexiest waiver wire studs. Let's roll.
Waiver Wire Pickups
Ivan Herrera, C
Welcome back to the list, Ivan. Weeks ago, I had Herrera as one of my more enthusiastic pickups. He was making extremely good contact and looked like a surefire stud. Unfortunately, he was promptly sent down to AAA after getting a bit cold due to irregulaur playing time. Why? Because Wilson Contreras was an absolute animal. Then Contreras broke his arm, and here we are, right back to Herrera. And he's already begun to heat up with now-regular ABs, compiling 7 hits, 3 runs, and 2 RBI in his last four appearances. Looking at his statcast profile, there's a lot to like, particularly that elite bat speed (thanks statcast.) We know everything can regress rapidly, from barrel % to Sweet Spot %, but the one thing that can't be faked is elite bat speed. Combine that bat speed with his power and the ball absolutely flies off Herrera's bat. If we look at his minor league stats last year, we also see this isn't a fluke. The man had a .950 OPS in AAA across 375 PAs in 2023. Going back to his swing, we also see he has a beautiful 32 contact percent, which is contributing to his 67th percentile sweet spot %. What we want to see improve, if anything, is his 34% fast swing rate. As he adusts to MLB pitching, I expect this number to increase along with his confidence. Herrera is going to see a ton of playing time with Contreras out, and his bat quality is too good to ignore.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, C It's 2023, and your fantasy team is really struggling. Judge broke his toe. Jazz is on the IL Wander Franco is a pedophile. You're laying in bed, staring up at the ceiling, wondering if god has forsaken your fantasy team. Then it happens. You get a notifcation about Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom getting called up in the dead of night and sneakily claim them off waivers, thinking you've just picked up your team saviors. Gelof met those expectations, but Soderstrom not so much, despite being the higher-ranked prospect. Well, now it's 2024, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready for the MLB. Across 19 ABs, he already has 6 hits, a HR, and a .929 OPS. Yes, it's a small sample size, but I can tell you right now, this guy was absolutely lost against MLB hitting last year. Seeing any kind of improvement has me optimistic. His statcast shows he's absolutely torched the ball since being called up, and his swing data shows an above average bat speed and contact % to go along with it. He's 22, and he was the A's #1 prospect. This is more likely to be the real Soderstrom. And let's not ignore he has both C AND 1B eligibility. Pick this guy up before he breaks out.
Brenton Doyle, OF
Hello, my old friend Brenton. You keep finding your way onto my lists. Your statcast has improved since you were last here - it's getting more and more red. Your BABIP has improved. You've stolen 4 bases in your last 5 games. You may get 100 runs this year. And yet, you're still under 40% owned. And now we can also see you have a really nice swing, with a well-above average bat speed and contact %. Combined with your 93rd percentile speed, you seem to be a very competent player. I appreciate you Brenton, even if those other mean boys don't. (And he just hit a HR while I write this article).
Andrew Vaughn, 1B
Andrew had an absolutely miserable start to the year after many thought he could be in for a breakout season. Well, his positive regression is finally hitting, as he's hit 3 HRs with a 1.22 OPS over the last week. Looking below, we can see his swing quality has improved. His fast swing rate has been up 10% this week, going from 13.4% to 21.6%. He's clearly seeing the ball better, and as a result, is swinging harder and making the ball go further (duh). He's also blasting the ball (fun term) at a higher clip., going from 16.4% to 23.3%. What is a blast, you may be asking? Let me click that ?:
So not only is he swinging faster more often, but he's reaching that minimum threshold of 82 MPH. Please, Andrew, keep blasting the ball, and don't let this just be a hot streak. You can see the season swing numbers vs the last week's swing numbers below.
Hayden Wesneski
A few weeks ago, I had several pitchers on my list. Not all of them were hits, but Wesneski certainly was, and he's one of the few elite young guys that still doesn't have a high roster %. I've had the pleasure of watching him pitch in each of his last three starts, and at times he looks unhittable. Unfortunately, he just got moved back into the bullpen, though I don't expect it to last long, if even more than a few more weeks. He's better than both Wicks and Hendricks. But even in long relief, he could be fantastic for ratios until he reclaims that starting job. I'll be keeping him for now.
Brendan Rodgers, 2B Don't look now, but Rodgers may finally be healthy and ready to live up to his #1 prospect billing. Yes, the statcast you see below is icy blue, but that's because he started the season absolutely miserably. Don't be deceived, as Brenden has been solid for a nice little stretch, hitting a respectable .308 over the past month, .320 over the last two weeks, and .345 over the last week. The power hasn't been there, but I'm almost certain there are rosters out there that could use a .280+ BA and mid .700s OPS at this point of the season.
As you can see below, his fast swing rate and contact % have been much higher since the beginning of May, versus his April numbers. Both his fast swing rate and contact % are up, and he has signficantly more competive swings in less ABs.
Wenceel Perez, 2B and OF Wenceel is a guy I've had my eye on for a few weeks, but I wanted to see more ABs, more consistent playing time, and just a larger sample size. I'm starting to believe the 24 year old switch hitter might be real. With a crisp .304 BA and .881 OPS on the season and eligibility at both 2B and OF, he could be a fantastic platoon bat. He's been good against RHP with a .278 BA and .861 OPS, but he's been even better against LHP, sporting a pristine .360 BA and .927 OPS. If he contineus to hit this well, he could find himself moving up in the Tigers order.
We very much like that 30.4% contact rate and above-average sweet spot %.
Cooper Criswell, SP I'm watching the Nationals vs White Sox game right now, and a Kia commercial came on. "Movement that inspires" is their slogan. I think Criswell should steal that slogan, because god-damn do his pitches move. Aside from the statcast that looks extremely sexy, look at the movement on his pitches! The amount of vertical movement he gets is extraordinary. His changeup, sinker and cutter all have a run value of 3, with only his sweeper having a negative run value (yet still a 26.2% whiff rate and 28.6% K rate!). Coming out of the same slot, each of these pitches moves in an entirely different direction, which allows him to compile some remarkable whiff rates on his changeup and cutter - 20% and 34%. He essentially has three viable put-away pitches that he uses often, set up by his sinker he throws only slightly more frequently and is adept at inducing ground balls. This guy has elite stuff, even if he lacks velocity, and should stay in the Sox rotation, as evidenced by the 9 Ks he racked up in his last appearance. He's a strange pitcher in the modern MLB and that makes him particuarly lethal.
Max Schuemann, SS, 2B, OF We're going a bit deeper with this one, but we like to go deep. Here we have the #20 prospect for the A's filling in for an injured Hernaiz, and he's done a pretty good job so far. Through 56 ABs, he has a xBA of .250 and an xSLG of .476. His peripherals look fantastic, and his 84th percentile sprint speed makes him an intruging SB option. In 2023 at AAA, he hit .277 with an .831 OPS. Good, but not spectacular. This last week for the A's, he hit .308 with an .879 OPS. Over the last two weeks, he owns a .313 BA with a .921 OPS. He's been scorching for two weeks and should be worth consideration in deep leagues if your roster has inuries. He has eligibility at 3 valuable positions.
Ryan Weathers, SP
This guy has been on a roll, posting three straight QS. His statcast may be a little too icy blue at first glance, but there's more to consider here. We can see his fastball is pretty nasty in terms of both velocity and horizontal movement, and it's been successful with a run value of 4. The issue is his breaking stuff doesn't have particularly strong run values - yet. Take a look at this:
His sweeper, which he throws 20.9% of the time, has a 55.3 % whiff rate, 40% K rate, and only a .130 BA against. And his changeup is no slouch either, with a 36.3% whiff rate and .206 BA against. It's strange his fastball has a .271 BA agaainst despite being an effective pitch, but he manages to limit hard contact on it, with a .371 SLG against. Overall, Weathers has ace potential if he can locate that fastball and limit the longball.
Jose Soriano, SP, RP I really love when guys with nasty stuff get moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation. It's a fun experiement that often results in some dominant starting pitchers, and much like Criswell, it seems to be working here. With a 98th velocity percentile and 98th percentile GB%, Soriano has a lot going for him. He Ks at an average clip, and is pretty wild when it comes to BBs, but I imagine the Ks will rise with how dominant his curveball has been.
His sinker that averages 98 MPH isn't even his best pitch, coming in at a 2 run value. It's his curveball that has a wild 42% whiff rate and 51.1% K rate. This guy has nasty, nasty stuff.
Keep An Eye Out (Pitchers)
Ryan Feltner: His statcast indicates he can be very good. Coors and bad luck have inflated his ERA. Cal Quantrill: His offspeed stuff has been excellent, despite a notable lack of movement. Probably looks weird to hitters. JP Sears: Last year, he threw his bad fastball 50% of the time, and his great sweeper 21% of the time. This year? He throws the bad fastball 31% of the time, and the great sweeper 31% of the time. He threw his good changeup 15% of the time, and now throws it 21% of the time. This new pitch mix may indicate success going forward. Colin Rea: His splitter has been an effective put away pitch, with a beautiful 3.8 inches of drop over the average. His statcast isn't pretty, but his splitter enables him to succeed. Splitters can carry hard. Joe Ross: It won't last, probably. Casey Mize: His splitter is much better this year, much like Rea.
Jose Urena: His fastball velocity is up and his sinker is now a good pitch for him, wheras it has been terrible in the past. Could be real. Carlos Carrasco: His slider has been an excellent putaway pitch with a 27.8% whiff rate and 31.1% K rate to go with a 38.9% put away. He may be able to sustain success if his slider continues to be this good.
Old Guys and Veterans Who Are Playing Well (Hitters): Carlos Santana
Joc Pederson
Tommy Pham Dairon Blanco ( This guy is crazy fast) Jake Bauers
Gary Sanchez Patrick Wisdom (every year at some point) Younger Guys With Upside or Platoon Value (Hitters) Otto Lopez Jake Mccarthy
Mason Wynn David Fry
Luis Matos Leody tavares
Joey Loperfido Andy Ibanez (Platoon champion) Falling Fast, Apologies I wanted to examine some of the guys i've included in past lists that have really fallen off, or have simply not produced the expected results. I can't take credit for the hits without mentioning the misses.
Keaton Winn: I was extremely high on Winn, and still am going forward. I think his stuff is excellent and he has a bright future with his splitter. Unfortunately, he's gotten shelled three games in a row and left his last start against the Dodgers with a forearm strain. A forearm injury would explain his recent performances. Edward Olivares: The xBA and xSLG remain high, but the production just isn't there. Cristopher Sanchez: He has good stuff, but he's just struggling to locate. Jordan Beck: I wasn't shy about proclaiming him my #1 hitting prospect, and he's been bad. He does have 5 RBIs today though, so maybe it's on the horizon. Blake Perkins: Struggling to lift the ball. Tyler Freeman: Bad. Gavin Sheets: The statcast looks nice, but the production isn't there in that awful lineup. Vaughn and Sheets need help. Michael Busch: It was fun while it lasted. Some things to like, still, but not worth rostering right now. Colton Cowser: I said he was a platoon bat, and he is. He is not the godsend most thought he was. Brendan Donovan: Regression hitting hard. Alex Kiriloff: Bad Jesse Winker: Regression Nelson Velasquez: Bad Ty France: Still Ty France.
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