Gerbil Score =
Expected Weighted On-Base Average * ? Stat Weight (this is for all of the following) (xwOBA)+
Expected Batting Average (xBA) +
Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG)+
Average Exit Velocity+
Barrel Percentage +
Hard-Hit Percentage+
Sweet Spot Percentage +
K rate +
Sprint Speed +
Run Value+
OPS against Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) at a higher value, bonus for players who mash RHP & LHP+
SB production+
Bonus for exemplary recent production. +
Judge
Aaron Judge, 99
I think it's safe to say we've become desensitized to the Judge - or at least I have. Judge hits a HR, and I don't even blink an eye anymore. Anyone else on my team hits a HR? Absolutely major W and a nice strong dopamine release. At an ADP of 12, it feels like the fantasy community suffered from collective amnesia. The only thing preventing Judge from being a 100/100 player is the lack of steals. Please appreciate this man, because we probably won't see another player like this for decades, if not longer (unless more guys built like Judge forgo basketball for baseball).
S
Marcel Ozuna, 94
If you drafted Ozuna, kudos to you. You drafted the guy closest to Aaron Judge in all of baseball at what was most likely a super cost-effective ADP. Ozuna has been absolutely inredible, and despite a solid .904 OPS and bright-red 2023 statcast, I somewhat ignored him during the draft process, It seemed like Ozuna was on the downturn of his career in 2022 at age 31, and it would have made sense - but this sudden surge at age 32 and now 33 has Ozuna betetr than he's been at any point in his career.
Juan Soto, 92
It's hard to believe Soto is only a 91, but Aaron Judge exists and you can see the gap between these two on a near-daily basis. It's pretty wild just how historically amazing Judge is, and how he makes guys like Juan Soto look by comparison. Soto is currentluy having the best camapign of his career, shuffling and slashing his way to a ridiculous .300 BA and .997 OPS. Like Judge, the only flaw in Soto's game is the lack of a speed profile.
Kyle Tucker, 91
I feel for the Tucker owners; losing someone this potent is never easy. Losing Judge last year to a devastating, unlucky toe injury cost me a playoff spot in a virtual tie for 6th place. At least this year, if you grabbed Heliot Ramos, you've been able to survive the loss and are probably still trending towards a playoff spot. Tucker just continues to be ridiculously good at baseball, and has somehow elevated his game to another level, improving on his already impressive .886 OPS and currently slashing .979. Wow. And I had to give this man a SB bonus, despite his awful 24th percentile sprint speed; his base-stealing intincts, like all of his other baseball instincts, are top-tier. Hope he comes back soon, he's so fun to watch.
Brandon Nimmo, 90 Nimmo is definitely one of the more underrated hitters in baseball - you often don't hear his name mentioned when talking about the best of the best. But man is there a lot of hitting talent and upside here. His .807 OPS is good, and his batting run value has been amazing, but I think there's even more here. Expect a huge second half, and maybe pull off a trade for this guy.
Yordan Alvarez, 89
In my head, Yordan has always been the closest thing to Judge that isn't Judge. Now that seems to be Ozuna. But Yordan is still right there as one of the beefiest, most talented mashers in all of baseball. His production and peripherals speak for themselves year after year.
Brent Rooker, 88
When Brent Rooker makes contact with the ball, the outcome is typically on par with folks like Judge and Ozuna. Rooker's problem, though, is he misses the ball a lot. Look, it's hard to be like those two guys, but Rooker is trying his hardest, and we appreciate that. Imagine this guy on a contender. Last year, we saw him do this for a nice stretch but quickly fade away. This year, he's doing it for an even longer stretch, and hasn't faded yet. Congratulations to those who got all-star production from this waiver wire champion.
Jarren Duran, 88 This guy is really, really good at baseball. He does everything so well and honestly doesn't get the acknolwedgment he deserves. With Corbin and Julio being ass this year, Duran is officially the premiere toolsy outfielder in the MLB.
A
Christian Yelich, 85 Age 32 Christian Yelich looks almost exactly like 2019 MVP runner-up Christian Yelich. This is great. Unfortunately for Yelich, with the existence of Ohtani and Harper, he probably won't be hoisting up that trophy this year either. Still, we should all acknowledge Yelich is all the way back and an absolutely fantastic fantasy asset. If he could turn up the power, and increase that barrel rate, even a little...he could actually surpass those two just by way of being a fantastic base-runner. 19 stolen bases at only an 80th percentile sprint speed shows Yelich has nearly the same kind of baserunning instincts as someone like Acuna. Again, let's remember he's 32 and coming off really awful back inuries. Impressive.
Riley Greene, 83 Riley Greene is so damned good against RHP, and it's why I was ecstatic to draft him. Most of the time, Riley Greene is a top tier OF that can string together multi-hit games. But when he's facing LHP? You better have a platoon option because he's terrible. This is why I have a guy like Brandon Marsh on the bench.
J.D. Martinez, 82
Profesional hitter, through and through. In 2022, we thought maybe he was on the way down with a "paltry" .789 OPS. Nah.
Fernando Tatis Jr., 81 I'm of the mind that Tatis Jr. should have way more production than he currently has, and is in line for a big second half. His current statcast metrics might actually be better than his 2021 peripherals, and it would be unsurprising to see a .900 OPS or higher the rest of the way. It's unfortunate he's not stealing nearly as much, but his 85th percentile sprint speed is quite a bit slower than it was before his PED suspension. Don't get me wrong, it's fast enough to steal tons of bases....but he used to have a 98th percentile sprint speed.
Heliot Ramos, 81
Even after a fairly recent slump, Heliot still checks in at an impressive 81 Gerbil Score. His power peripherals speak for themselves, and his Sweet-Spot % is just high enough to help him maintain impressive launch angles and not be a ground-ball merchant. We'd love to see Heliot put his sneaky speed to better use and improve on that sweet-spot and K rate to launch himself further up the list, but we'll take what we can get, and I think what we are getting is enough for a guy nobody had heard of. This was his score before his nice game yesterday, by the way. Keeping hitting those dingers.
B
Jurickson Profar, 76
Seiya Suzuki, 75 The formula loves Seiya, and it's really not hard to see why. All of his contact peripherals are great to elite on top of very good speed and stolen base potential. His .285 BA with runners on has resulted in 28 RBIs, which is reflected in his impressive 81st percentile batting run value. His impressive .750+ OPS from both sides makes him a viable threat every day of the week and his OPS against RHP continues to climb. Seiya is a nice piece who we can expect to have a big second half.
Taylor Ward, 75
Taylor Ward has been impressive from a statcast perspective since his breakout campaign in 2022, but injuries have made his production inconsistent. He has a rare profile of poor bat speed but incredible power, and I'm extremely impressed with his combination of power and sweet-spot %. Unfortunately, playing on a Troutless Angels team really hurts his run value. Trout + Ward might be a nice stack to own if Trout makes it back for the second half.
Ian Happ, 74
Despite being on the Cubs, Happ has found ways to provide excellent run value, and is paird nicely with Suzuki as an OF duo. His xBA and K rating hurt him quite a bit here, and are the only thing preventing him from rising into the 80s. But this is for good reason, as failing at these peripherals can often be predictive of regression. I think Happ will be good the rest of the way, though, given that his walk and chase rates really show he's only swinging at good pitches to hit.
Kyle Schwarber, 74
Steven Kwan, 74
Insane plate discipline and a 99th percentile sweet-spot % have turned Kawan into a hitting machine. He's better than Luis Arraez ever was, providing fantastic run value and a nice OPS.
Starling Marte, 71 Marte is providing really nice value at his ADP after an extremely disappointing rookie camapign with the Mets. He really seems to be channeling his inner-Grimace. The sweet-spot percentile is up from 15th to an insane 91st percentile, and all of the power peripherals are way up too. He was clearly hobbled last year.
Bryan Reynolds, 71
Bryan Reynolds is putting together a season similar to his 2022 campaign, but most of us want him to replicate his outstanding 2021 camapign that had many thinking he was a superstar OF. He seems to be trending that way and might be a "buy-low" candidate.
C
Giancarlo Stanton, 69
Want Big Dongs? Look no further. He's raised his sweet-spot percentile from 2nd (gross) to 43rd, which is a notable, exciting increase. Hopefully he comes back and resumes right where he left off.
Joc Pederson, 69 Even with a penalty for playing significantly less than other players, Joc still manages to come in at a nice 69 grade. He's swinging a powerful bat while also having nice splits against RHP and a fairly high sweet-spot %, and the results of a .282 BA with an .876 OPS seem to fall in line with the peripherals. Joc is a wonderful platoon option off the bench.
Brenton Doyle, 68 Doyle does in fact rule, and I dropped him right before his power explosion after stanning him all year. Shame on me. It wasn't because I no longer like him as a player, but because I've made the decision to punt SBs. I find them to be extremely unreliable, much likes saves and holds, and so I dropped Doyle after various attempts to trade him for a pitcher. Part of this roster overhaul was trading Turang and Will Smith for Correa, and slotting Ben Rice/Bailey as my C. I still believe the reason to own Doyle is his SB potential, and not power, but I'm sure Doyle owners are ecstatic about what they're seeing.
Brandon Marsh, 68 Much like Joc a few spots above him, Marsh is a righty-hitting specialist who gets penalized for playing significantly less than other players, but produces so well against RHP that he comes in at a very respectable score. Though not as powerful as Joc, and not as proficient aginst LHP, Marsh offers some stolen base upside with a respectable 9 SBs in 242 PAs to go alongside his .830 OPS against RHP, which is the only time you should be using him - don't start him against LHP. His K-rate also does his final Gerbil Score no favors, but looking at the peripherals, we can expect a power surge at some point that can at least make up for some of the Ks. A 55th percentile barrel rate to go with a elite hard-hit, sweet-spot, and average exit velocity percentiles shows me that Brandon Marsh should have more than 7 HRs, and that positive regression may be on the way. His run value also benefits signficantly from being in the Phillies lineup, so the RBIs will always be there. If this score seems too high - and it even does to me - just remember that this is meant to be predictive as well. I roster Marsh for both future production and the fact he doesn't hurt ratios.
Lars Newt-Bar, 67 I really want to own this guy; I love me those dawgs who are sure thangs against RHP. The profile here is very similar to Joc and Marsh. Set and forget against RHP. If you google probable pitchers and see a southpaw? Just throw Marsh in, for example, if you owned Nootbaar and Marsh. If both players have a southpaw? Welp, just accept the bad luck.
Anthony Santander, 66+ The only thing preventing Santander from a much higher GS is a complete lack of stolen base production and a poor xBA. If you're in a categories league and decide to punt SBs, there is no better player to own than Anthony Santander. He'll pump up every other category other than BA, which we wish was higher. Otherwise, his sabotage of these two stats has him firmly planted at a respectable 66 GS with + flair. I included him in my buy-low piece a while back, and I should have followed my own advice.
Tyler O'Neil, 64+
Tyler O'Neil is having a fine year, and at first glance, a 64 might seem pretty low. But there's some heavy penalties here for a low xBA, terrible K rate, poor run value (28 RBIs is low), and lack of stolen base potential. He's just not producing in several categories at the rates of other talented hitters, and you can't have a .188 batting average with RISP. That's really bad. If he starts to show he can drive in runs and find the clutch gene, the sky is the limit for Tyler.
Teoscar Hernández, 63+ Much like Tyler above him, Teoscar has flaws keeping him from the upper tiers despite being an exremely potent hitter. His terrible K rate combined with a middling xBA, middling batting run value, fairly low sweet-spot %, and lack of SB potential have him lower than even I would have liked. I think, if anything, this score reflects exactly how hot and cold Teoscar can be and clear lack of consistency week to week, despite being a guy that has 45 runs and 19 HRs. For example, he has a .615 OPS and .243 BA over the last two weeks - a fairly long slump for a player that's in a higher tier. Teo is volatile and often frustrating to own, and for that reason, I believe a 63 is fair on the heels of a slump, with a + flair to recognize his talent and the team he plays for. Let's see where he is in a month.
Jared Kelenic, 63 Kelenic is in the midst of his best season as a pro and doing it in a lineup that desperately needs him. With Matt Olson in his down year of his every-other-year-I'm-great pattern, Albies having a poor season, and Acuna out for the year, Kelenic has tried his best to provide the Braves with a consistent bat to hellp Ozuna. Kelenic came pretty close to a nice bonus threshold for OPS against RHP, so maybe next time around, he'll work his way up the list. His sweet-spot% is beautiful and there's power to back it up. He kind of has the Rooker build of making contact rarely, but it's good contact when he does. Definitely worth rostering as a platoon bat.
Trevor Larnach, 63
Larnach has a meaty statcast, but the production still isn't showing, which is surprising, because he sees plenty of RHP. The peripherals indicate a big second half could be on the horizon, so keep an eye on him.
Luis Robert Jr., 62
Being on the White Sox destroys Luis' run value, which is the main culprit behind the lower than expected Gerbil Score. We really care about RBI opportunities and counting stats, we aren't just here for nice peripherals. On top of that, his K rates and xBA are extremely low, which also incur lesser penalties. But on a great team where he can put up counting stats, Robert Jr. would easily be a 70+ player
Lane Thomas, 62+
Lane Thomas is a clear standout at this tier, and might be a really good buy-low candidate. He's a stolen base machine, and the peripherals are actually quite healthy. I think he'll have a great second half.
D
Jazz Chisholm, 59
Another guy who hits the ball right into the ground. Work on that sweet-spot. An 83rd percentile sprint speed is just not fast enough to convert all of the groundballs into singles. It's also discouraging to see his average exit velocity and hard hit rates at such a low point, for a guy we thought had really good power.
Bryan De La Cruz, 57
An inability to hit RHP and poor plate discipline limit De La Cruz to a middling bat.
Kevin Pillar, 56
Sweet-spot and a pretty good sprint speed at age 35 are carrying Pillar to a sneakily solid season. This might actually be sustainable, as we can also see his plate discipline is fantastic. Pillar has aged like fine wine.
Wyatt Langford, 55
His ceiling is limited to extremely hot stretches followed by cold stretches as long as his sweet-spot percent is this poor. Consistent launch angle is required for consistent production when you're not an uber-tier player. We also hate that he's near useless against RHP. Thanks for killing me last week with that cycle, bud.
Jesse Winker, 53 I see no reason to own Winker if you can get someone like Marsh or Joc. But he's a valid play if your league is super deep and all of the proficient-against-RHP-hitters are gone.
Julio Rodriguez, 51
To finish the season with an .800 OPS or higher, he'll have to play like Aaron Judge for the entire second half. It's looking like a guy with a higher ADP than Judge may finish with a .700 OPS.
Cody Bellinger, 48 In 2023, when Bellinger had an 86th percentile sweet-spot %, it seemed like he found a new hitting approach that worked for him. It led to a beautiful .881 OPS and .307 BA. This year? The sweet-spot is down to the 42nd percentile, and with it, his excellent slash lines. He's also whiffing significantly more. Whatever adjustments he tried to make to his swing, he needs to revert.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 47
Terrible against RHP, limiting his fantasy value to a bench bat or desperate injury replacement.
Adolis Garcia, 46
His plate discipline has been abysmal this season, but there's potential here. When he makes contact with the ball, he makes good contact. He just doesn't make contact often.
Nick Castellanos, 40
32 and probably washed.
Alex Verdugo, 40
His complete inability to hit LHP, medicore production against RHP, and complete lack of speed has Verdugo as someone you should not be rostering.
Regret
Corbin Carroll, 25.
Yikes.
Cedric Mullins, 23
I still think about this a lot ever since you published it. I like how it highlights Nimmo as something more special than he's perceived as, but do you have any thoughts about how it seems to value him higher than the guys that follow and, for instance, equates Tatis and Ramos?