Mid-Week Musings: Hitter Prospect Watch

Follow me on Bluesky at Gerbilsports. Hey everyone, back for a quick second prospect watch piece. Since the last post, Chase Meidroth got the call and has been getting on base plenty for the Chi Sox. The hope is he starts to swipe some bags and get knocked in by some upcoming CWS talent, but we'll see. He's definitely still adjusting to MLB pitching. I'll be writing up a pitcher piece tomorrow, and start preparing the next hitters list. Edgar Quero (B, Promoted) Everyone rejoice, the White Sox have called up another prospect! Quero has displayed excellent plate discipline at AAA, rivaling the elite discipline of fellow call-up Meidroth. If you look below, you'll see a few awesome metrics: 89th percentile BB% 74th percentile Whiff% 91st percentile Chase% It's nice to see kids that know how to work an AB joining the CWS lineup, and if all goes well, actually producing some run value. But we're not just here for OBP, are we? Quero's exit velocity and barrel % isn't exactly going to translate to any kind of power value, at least not in 2025. If you're looking for a C that can just get on base and keep your ratios up, Edgar might be worth an add. But don't expect counting stats.

Hao-Yu Lee (A+)

The Taiwanese sensation might just be on the precipice of a call-up for the Kitties with Colt Keith completely forgetting how to hit a baseball (on top of not knowing how to field a baseball). In last week's piece, we took a look at Jace Jung as a possible Keith replacement, but that job could very well go to Lee. His metrics look fantastic across the board with absolutely blistering red (play the Chevel song in your head while you read this) from top to bottom, and his speed is notably a tool that Jung doesn't possess. With plus power, contact, and speed, Lee could be a five tool contributor right off the bat.

Jordan Lawlar (A-) Lawlar is inching ever closer to the MLB, but not as a SS - Lawlar has been playing 2B at AAA, seemingly preparing to fill in for an injured Ketel Marté. There's little left for Lawlar to prove in the minors - a .288 BA, .905 OPS, and 4 SBs sees him primed and ready for The Show. The only worries with Lawlar are the Whiff and K rates - 41st and 34th percentile - and how that will translate to the MLB. These types of metrics tend to go decrease quite a bit against better MLB pitching. There will undoubtedly be lots of Ks, but on the flip side, he's been pretty good at taking walks at AAA with a 67th percentile BB%. Lawlar has the speed to swipe bags when he does take walks, and for me, that would probably be the deciding factor in adding him to a roster. If you've rcently lost Correa or are just struggling at SS in general, Lawlar could be your answer.

Tim Tawa ( A+, Promoted ) Tim Tawa has looked like prime Barry Bonds a AAA, and that rightfully earned him the promotion to the bigs last week.. He's knocked in his first dinger, swiped his first SB, and even today, he walked twice to raise his OPS to a respectable .754. With MLB statcast now giving us some more insight into Tawa, we have some confirmation of some solid bat speed and the ability to square up MLB pitching. Tim Tawa tattoos baseballs and he could be doing it for your roster.

Nick Loftin (B) Loftin's 2024 MLB stint didn't go as planned - a .189 BA and .518 OPS aren't going to get the job done, but he did display some extremely promising ability - 85th + percentiles for Squared Up %, Chase %, Whiff%, K%, and BB%. Basically, Nick Loftin is an absolute god at seeing the ball. Unfortunately for Loftin, a high squared up % means nothing when your exit velocity is basically non-existent. His 5th percentile Avg Exit Velocity betrayed his eyes and he struggled to get hits, even with solid speed. Fast forward to 2025 and we see Loftin's vision at AAA is still as elite as they come. But what about the power? Well, the good news is that he does seem to have a bit more power, at least from what his AAA metrics suggest: 53rd percentile Hard-Hit % at 2025 AAA vs. 7th percentile at 2024 MLB. 40th percentile Average Exit Velocity vs. 5th percentile. This kind of signficant jump, if it carried over to the MLB level even with a 5-10% loss to account for tougher pitching, would still be an incredible jump from last year and make him a viable option. At AAA, Loftin currently has a .327 BA, .487 OBP, .905 OPS, and 5 SBs. Pretty incredible numbers considering he doesn't have a single HR. With Massey and Tolbert both being pretty poor options at 2B, I'd expect Loftin to get the call sooner rather than later.

Ernesto Martinez Jr. (C+)

Ernesto has been an absolute monster at AAA and seemingly has no shortcomings in his hitting profile other than a low Z-swing % (he's not swinging at pitches in the zone as much as he should). Funnily enough, his Chase % is so good that it leads me to believe his low Z-swing might actually be a product of a perfect eye at the plate. He's not just swinging at any pitch in the strike zone, but only the pitches he likes. For example, a pitch up and away in the corner might be in the zone, but it's also a pitch that often results in a poor outcome. Ernesto dosn't swing at those. Nor does he swing at balls outside the zone. Ernesto is a picky eater, but always eats well. Not only are his power numbers and discipline numbers exemplary, but the kid has some speed as well. Enough to leg out tough singles and maybe even swipe a few bags. Now the question is, when do the Brewers decide to call up this slugger and pull the plug on an age 32 Hoskins? Honestly, it might be a little while. Hoskins still provides decent run value, and unfortunately can't be moved to DH because it seems Yelich is a fulltime DH at this point of his career. What a shame, Ernesto is the besto. Also, on the topic of the Brewers - I saw Durbin got called up. He won't be on this list, I'm not a huge fan. There's no power there and a low BB%. But I'll keep an eye on him.

Jorbit Vivas (A) If you read my hype for Trey Sweeney a few weeks ago in a waiver wire piece, you saw that I may have premptively dunked on Jorbit Vivas, who was a piece the Tigers gave up in the Vivas trade, and glazed Sweeney pretty hard . Since then, Trey Sweeney has struggled at the MLB level while Jorbit Vivas has absolutely raked at AAA. That's baseball, eh? Vivas has been fantastic at AAA and is currently slashing .328 with a .914 OPS while Oswaldo Cabrera continues to be one of the worst 3B in the MLB. His ability to make contact is near 99th percentile across all relevant metrics and that should translate well to the MLB. If you ask me, i'd say a Vivas promotion is imminent and would make him an immediate add in deeper leagues the minute he enters that Yankees lineup.

Braxton Fulford (A+, Promoted) Fulford was promoted three days ago on the heels of some absolute demolishing of AAA pitchers. His .391 BA, 1.346 OPS, and 5 HRs were Bondsian in nature and put him in the company of Nick Kurtz (yet nobody is talking about him) - this was all the Rockies needed to see. With Hunter Goodman's hot start in the rearview mirror, the Rox are hoping Fulford is the answer at C or DH. His power percentiles are elite across the board, and his Zone Contact % comes in at a staggering 94th percentile. His command of the strikezone should translate well to the MLB and might be the sneaky catcher play of the year. If you're stoked for Kurtz, you should really consider adding this guy as well.

Luis Campusano (A) Don't look now, but Mr. Campusano may be on his way back to the MLB after an extremely disappointing 2024 campaign. After slashing .319 for an .847 OPS in 2023, many drafted Campusano in hopes of getting the next great power C in the middle of a stacked Padres lineup. Campusano failed mightily to live up to expectations in 2024 - his .227 BA and .642 OPS had him starting 2025 in the minors. Fast forward to 2025 and Campusano is displaying the kind of ability we saw in 2023, and he may very well be ready to rake at the MLB level again. With Fulford being at the MLB level and Campusano on the way, managers with C issues should have some hope going forward. Campusano is currently hitting .380 with a 1.346 OPS at AAA.

Addison Barger (C), Promoted)

Barger's MLB debut came in 2024 and it was pretty, pretty awful. His .197 BA and .601 OPS had many wondering if Barger was worthy of his prospect ranking, and I really don't blame them. Now it's 2025 and Barger just got the call back to the MLB level, but is he ready? Well, his AAA metrics are a mixed bag. Yes, his power looks as promising as it ever has, and his zone-contact % is pretty solid. But man, that awful Chase % is just not what you want to see. Add that to a poor K% and I think Barger is an extremely risky fantasy play. We'll keep an eye on him.

Juan Brito (B) With Brayan Rocchio playing poorly on both the offensive and defensive side of things, there's a distinct possibility the toolsy Juan Brito gets a promotion in the near future, with Gabriel Arias possibly sliding over to SS. Brito has a nice AAA slash line of .302 for a .900 OPS and a respectable four SBs. When it comes to the metrics, he excels across the board, with only his Hard-Hit% landing at a blue level. And even then, his ability to barrel the ball and make quality contact has me fairly unconcerned with the exit velocities and Hard-Hit %. When he gets the call, and I think he will, he's going to be an add with tremendous upside.

Owen Caissie (B+) Caissie is a 6'3 slugger who swings for the fences 100% of the time. This has led him to some ridiculous power metrics - 100th percentile Barrel %, 99th percentile Hard-Hit%, and 97th percentile Max EV and EV. At only age 22, he's already one of the most powerful players in the minors and on the verge of an MLB promotion. With struggling veteran Ian Happ serving as the primary roadblock to MLB playing time, it shouldn't be long now as his ETA was Summer 2025 heading into the year. I'm not sure exactly how well his free-swinging approach will work out in his first MLB stint (probably not well), but with this kind of power, the possiblity of bunches of HRs is too good to ignore.