It doesn't seem like all that long ago when the world (namely social media) cackled at the idea of the New York Knicks signing Jalen Brunson for 4 years at $104 million.
"LOLKnicks."
This was only a few weeks after Anfernee Simons signed a 4 year, $100 million contract extension with the Blazers. This was considered a good contract - and make no mistake, it was. Anfernee Simons is 24 years old and averaging 24 PPG on a .574 TS %. He shoots 35% from 3 and 44% from the field. It's easy to see a future where Simons improves on his efficiency and becomes one of the better scorers in the league. That's why he got the contract. For now, he's a competent future-piece that shows a lot of potential for the Blazers. Good on them. Maybe one day he'll become Jalen Brunson.
But for some reason, people didn't really see that future for an age 26 Jalen Brunson. Which is quite odd, considering the flashes he showed with the Dallas Mavericks when Luka was injured. In 20 games without Luka, he averaged 22 PPG on a 57% TS. On top of that, he dominated Donnovan Mitchell in the playoffs, scoring 41 on him in a game 2 win against the Jazz. He was clearly, and obviously, a very good scorer when given the opportunity to get his shots, but people refused to believe this was the real Jalen Brunson. And this sentiment wasn't new. Even coming out of Villanova, where he led a stacked team to a championship, he was deemed a 2nd round pick by scouts.
Forget that he has an NBA pedigree, a complete bag of scoring moves, and a winning track record. Forget that he easily did everything he was asked to do plus a little extra, which is the hallmark of being competent and employable.
He's undersized. He's not Uber-athletic. He didn't shoot a lot of threes at Villanova. He kind of has a big head and a stocky frame. He's not tatted up and slender, which is way cooler. He's not outspoken and loud. I get it. Nothing about Jalen Brunson is flashy.
He looks more like an NFL running back than an NBA player.
Which is exactly why he is so damned good.
Make no mistake, Jalen Brunson is a world-class athlete. He's extremely powerful. His center of gravity is low. He is elite at changing direction. His footwork is impeccable. He possesses a 6'4 wingspan despite a height of 6'1. He can dunk at that generously listed height of 6'1. Brunson doesn't jump out of the building, but when you're built like an NFL halfback, that doesn't matter. Tons of slightly-built players would trade some inches off their vertical leap to have the amount of muscle mass Jalen possesses. It just makes him better than them. His layup package is far more effective than athletic guys who can posterize an unsuspecting big once every few games. Brunson can absorb contact and remain balanced when attacking the basket at any angle. He can post up other guards. That's elite athleticism.
Undoubtedly, scouts often focus on the wrong aspects of a player. Which is why we have so many "project players" coming into the NBA and being complete, utter busts. Jalen Brunson was a slam-dunk pick, no pun intended, right from the jump. And every scout for every team failed to draft him in the 1st round.
Coming out of Villanova, Jalen was regarded for his ability to run an offense. But nobody expected him to become such an excellent scorer. He's quickly become one of the elite shooter's in the NBA, putting up the type of numbers on high efficiency you'd expect from guys like Steph Curry and Damian Lillard. In fact, let's compare his current season to Curry and Lillard's age 27 seasons.
----Lillard (2017-2018): 8.5 3 point attempts per 36 minutes, 36% from three, .594 TS%
---Curry (2015-2016): 11.8 3pa per 36, 45% from three, .669 TS%
---Brunson (2023-2024) 6.8 3pa per 36, 46% from three, .597 TS%
Let's get this out of the way: It's immediately apparent that Steph Curry in 2015 had the greatest shooting season of all time. Nobody will ever compare, including Jalen Brunson. But that also includes Damian Lillard, who is often regarded as only being second to Steph in his ability to make difficult threes. When you compare Brunson to Lillard, things really get interesting. Though Brunson's volume is slightly lower, with 8.5 vs 6.8 attempts per game, he's a more efficient shooter, boasting a three-point percentage 10 points higher than Lillard. Their TS% is nearly identical, with Brunson's being marginally higher at .597. And make no mistake, .597 is an elite percentage. For perspective, Donnovan Mitchell currently boasts a .575 TS%. He's only finished with a TS% above .575 once, which was last season at .614.
Brunson is, frankly, an elite shooter by the numbers. A lot of people will say numbers don't tell the entire story. And I agree. So just watch Brunson play. You wouldn't be at fault if you mistook him for Lillard or Curry. He's hitting step-back threes with a hand in his face consistently. He's shooting from the logo. He's not shooting 46% from three on wide open catch and shoots; he's creating difficult shots and draining them at a high rate. With Curry and Lillard showing their age, it's entirely possible Brunson can take over the mantle of best three point shooter in the league. That seems wild to say, but the premise is entirely logical. In fact, it almost seems likely.
There's been a few drawbacks, though. His inside game has regressed a bit. His field goal percentage has dropped from 46% to 44% this season, despite improved three point shooting. It's obvious he spent his offseason working on his three ball and his in-the-paint prowess has taken a bit of a hit. To that I say: "That's fine." His overall game has improved tremendously. The modern NBA revolves around the three, and his inside game is still elite. But what happens if Brunson maintains this level of shooting, while also reclaiming his peak inside game? What if it all comes together? Instead of a 25 PPG scorer, could he be a 30+ PPG scorer? As the #14 scorer in the league, only Kevin Durant has a 3 point percentage higher than Brunson among those ahead of him (46.7%). That's incredible.
Jalen Brunson has all of the tools to be a top five scorer in the NBA. It's simply a matter of taking more shots, and even slightly improving on his inside game going forward. While Julius Randle is on the team, Brunson won't see the volume of shots that guys like Luka and Shai get. That's completely understandable. Randle has looked incredible as of late. But that could change in the near future, and if it does, I believe Brunson is ready to seize the moment.
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