What's up folks. I got extremely baked today (yesterday) and decided to embark on a quest. For a while now, I've wanted to make cool scores that accurately reflect what I look for in a player on a conceptual level, but with a statcast basis. I came up with a formula I think I really like. It took me a really, really long time to tune the weights and make sure the results were accurate and repeatable, and now we have Gerbil Scores!
Gerbil Score uses the red bars and peripherals you see constantly to calculate a score that I believe is both predictive and reflective of current production. It does not lean on past seasons whatsoever. This is a forward thinking space!
Gerbil Score =
Expected Weighted On-Base Average * ? Stat Weight (this is for all of the following) (xwOBA)+
Expected Batting Average (xBA) +
Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG)+
Average Exit Velocity+
Bat Speed +
Barrel Percentage +
Hard-Hit Percentage+
Sweet Spot Percentage +
Chase Rate +
Whiff Rate +
K rate +
Sprint Speed +
Run Value+
OPS against Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) at a higher value, bonus for players who mash RHP & LHP+
SB production+
Bonus for exemplary recent production. +
If "stat" <??? percentile, then "stat" has decreased weight - logic for certain stats. Not all players with low Barrel percentages, for example, should be penalized if they excel at other things, like Speed and Sweet-Spot. This accounts for that. The score is then normalized to 100. My goal was to make 100 basically represent the perfect player, and Aaron Judge scores just below 99. I'm happy with that. It took me about 15 hours to run every player through, plus come up with the formula itself, when my initial estimate was 6 hours. It's been a long two days! Now that the formula is settled (which is open to tweaking), future lists will be a bit less time consuming to make. Gerbil Scores will also appear on waiver wire players, so that can be fun, for me at least. What the weights and bonus thresholds are will remain a mystery - that's the secret sauce! But I will tell you Barrel and xwOBA are weighted highly, for example. We also show love to sweet-spot for guys who don't have a power profile, and even for guys who do! And for players with linear scaling that doesn't work so well, like Elly De La Cruz and his absurd SB totals having him almost 100% higher than the guy behind him, bonus points are added. This score was designed with Categories leagues being the main priority, but obviously there's plenty of overlap with points leagues. Some guys will be more valuable in points leagues, like Stott, where the horrendous ratios won't kill your categories. Guys with an * have small sample sizes. They are risky, but exciting players. Part of the fun of fantasy for me is the speculative add! Guys with a + have specialty abilities that make them more dynamic than others in the tier, whether it's the ability to win you a SB category, or excelling at hitting dingers!
I'm really excited about how many young players have come out of nowhere to be fantasy assets this year!
S
Gunnar Henderson, 92
Gunnar has been nothing short of generationally good, and I believe if he were to take PEDs, we'd be seeing a prime A-Rod type of player here. I like to think of Gunnar as A-rod if he decided not to cheat. He's really that electric, and is bringing power and speed to a position that, frankly, has been lacking in consistency. We've seen this type of power from Seager, but not on a consistent basis. We've seen this type of power and speed from Elly, but not even close to consistently. Trea Turner was supposed to be this, but inconsistency and injuries have left him a player with a much lower ceiling than what could be imagined a few years ago. Bobby Witt Jr. has the same tools, but he's just not generating the absurd number of HRs.
Gunnar is destroying breaking balls to the tune of a .333 BA against, after hitting only .237 against them in 2023. This remarkable improvement has Gunnar Henderson as not only the best middle infielder in baseball, but possibly the best in decades. A solid 92 Gerbil Score is befitting of this .
Bobby Witt Jr., 91
Bobby Witt Jr. is the closest thing to Gunnar without being Gunnar, and although we wish there were more HRs to show for his incredible power metrics, there's absolutely a lot to love here, including the 21 SBs. Much like Gunnar Henderson, he's signicifantly improved against breaking balls, going from a .212 BA to a .319 BA against. He's clearly the 1B to Gunnar's 1A.
A
Jordan Westburg, 89
Westburg winds up being fairly close to his good friend Gunnar, and let's just say that Baltimore is absolutely spoiled with these ridiculously valuable infield options. Westburg absolutely demolishes RHP, and along with a sexy statcast, Westburg takes home 3rd place in Gerbil Score. Westburg has one of the highest ceilings of any young hitter in baseball. I wish he did this last year when I stashed him in NA.
Carlos Correa, 86 Carlos Correa is surprisingly still Carlos Correa, and when healthy, is one of the most disciplined hitters in the entire league. He excels at literally every aspect of hitting and maintains an extremely high run value (reflective of RISP, etc) in a deep Twins lineup. I'd love to own him.
Mookie Betts, 86+ I get this is Mookie, and I know what you may be thinking - but an 86 is not a bad score. In fact, it's an extremely strong score when you see just how low we get in this tier list. Before his injury, Mookie experienced a pretty signficant power drought after opening the season with a HR frenzy, and it's reflected in his Barrel rates. Mookie can easily come back and launch himself into S tier within a span of a few games, that's just how hot this man can get. Until then, and as he remains on the injured list, he sits nicely at an 86. with a little + flair.
Ryan McMahon, 85
McMahon has been a statcast darling even going back to last year, when he was one of my best waiver pickups. I'm not surprised he's taken his game to an elite level in 2024 with just how hard he smacks the ball, and now with the weather warming at Coors?.....yikes. A hot take of mine is I'd consider offering Julio for this guy, because of how underrated he is and just how much he actually produces. But I guess if you've made it this far, you probably expect Julio's positive regression to hit hard any day now. Hopefully sunk cost fallacy doesn't rear it's ugly head.
Ketel Marte, 83 Ketel Marte would legitmately be an MVP frontrunner every year if he hit RHP the way he hits LHP. His 1.073 OPS against LHP is so absurd that it allows him to keep up with guys that mash righties, and because of this he sits comfortably at an 83.
CJ Abrams, 83
Abrams is super toolsy and has heated up as of late after a prolonged slump. His Sweet-Spot % combined with a nice speed profile and Hard-Hit % carries him here. The sky is the limit for CJ, especially if he can Barrel the ball a bit more. Remember, this kid is 23. He's improving.
Corey Seager, 82 +
After putting up a 1.013 OPS in 2023, it looked like Corey Seager would easily be the most valuable middle infielder in all of fantasy baseball. Unfortunately, the production hasn't materialized after a slow start that was also marred with bad luck. His peripherals have remained strong all year and the production is finally beginning to show up, but his lack of speed clearly seperates him from Witt Jr.and Gunnar unless he goes nuclear. And honestly, he probably will go nuclear.
B
Jake Cronenworth, 80 I actually find it pretty surprising Jake is having such a good season after last year's dud, but here we are in 2024 and Cronenworth is more productive than anyone expected at his ADP. He's hitting sliders and curveballs much better this year, and K'ing less on fastballs. He's a counting stat producer with above-average ratios.
Willy Adames, 78. +
I drafted Willy last year expecting this kind of production, and instead I wound up loathing him and dropping him. Kind of like Bo Bichette this year, who I was all too happy to trade at basically no value in a package. But who knows, maybe he was feeling a little beat up, or maybe he had anxiety last season. This year, however, he's mashing and putting up counting stats, reflected strongly in his run value.
Spencer Horwitz*, 76 This guy only has 46 ABs, but boy are they sexy ABs. It's hard to find a guy who looks more comfortable against righties than Horwitz. His eye at the plate is elite and his contact ability is absolute money, and this showed across a large sample size at AAA. A lot of us are high on Horwitz, and let's see if he can keep this going.
Elly De La Cruz, 76 +
The SB production is otherwordly, but a .239 xBA and underwhleming .803 OPS for someone with this much power can really hurt ratios. I get an .803 OPS is respectable, but the OPS comes in bunches, and the slumps are tough on managers. Going weeks with a sub .700 OPS and almost no hits can be really hard on the Win-Loss column. Whether it's ratios in categories leagues or negative points from Ks in points leagues, Elly can often be frustrating to own. His tools should have him hitting better and we all know it. And guess what - he's definitely heating up, if his 1.167 OPS over the last two weeks says anything. Elly will be in the 80s soon.
Francisco Lindor, 75. + Lindor has been solid this year, and a 75 might seem kind of low, but his ratios are mediocre and he's penalized for being a lefty specialist. And on top of that, his run value is mediocre - he's hitting only 225 with RISP. There should be way more counting stats for this guy and he's been fortunate to have 50 runs. I could see Francisco getting tons of RBIs going forward and climbing these rankings, or falling down if his team slumps and stops driving him in. 50 runs is cool. but will the Grimace Mets last forever?
Jackson Merril, 75 It's insane that this kid was 50% owned at one point a few weeks ago...and I didn't get him :( This is about as good as it gets for a 21 year old rookie, not much else to say. Expect Merril to be one of the premiere players in the league with this toolset and contact ablity.
Willi Castro, 75
Willi has been really under the radar nice this year, so much so that his Gerbil score actually surprised me a bit.I guess I never really took the time to look under the hood because he's obviously owned in most leagues. I'm glad my formula accounts for Sweet-Spot! This right here is just a perfectly fine player on a perfectly fine team.
Jonathan India, 72 India is a sweet-spot champion, but doesn't quite have the speed profile you want to see for a guy that is all sweet-spot and no power. His ceiling will remain limited by his length of strength and inability to hit well against RHP, but he's not a bad for counting stats and makes the most he can against southpaws. Hix xBA and xwOBA really carry him here, and hopefully those expected numbers lead to an India surge.
Spencer Steer, 72
We've been waiting on a Steer breakout for years, and 2023 was close. But unless Steer can learn to hit righties better, his ceiling will always be kind of limited to what it is now - a fine hitter who unfortunately excels at hitting against the rare southpaw.
Trea Turner, 70 + You may be thinking this is low for Trea, but it's not. Please consider that he only has three dongs on the season in 187 PAs. We see this reflected in his Barrel % and even Sweet-Spot %. His ability to get tons of hits, including doubles, keeps him at a very respectable 70 score, and his counting stat upside in a PHI lineup is insane. Trea will make his way up when the power arrives, and it should arrive.
B-
Daniel Schneemann*, 68 Super utility baseball god Daniel Schneeman only has 58 PAs, but he's made the most of them. He hits the ball hard and with quality, as you can see with his currently absurd Sweet-Spot %. And this guy is seriously going to have eligibility at like 9000 positions soon. The more CLE decides to play him, the faster we'll find out just how real the Schnee-Man is. I think we all like what we've seen so far.
David Hamilton, 64. + Damn this guy is good at stealing bases, and that is really helping to carry him to a very nice 64 rating with some + flair. It also helps that his Sweet-Spot % is unbelievably high, and I'm once again happy I tuned my formula to account for exactly this type of profile.
Jose Altuve, 63. +
Jose may have lost his speed, but he's still savvy enough on the base-paths to rack up steals. And with his elite Sweet-Spot %, his launch angle is just good enough to get balls out of the park, even if he's lost a lot of power. At age 34, Altuve is making the most of his pure hitting ability to remain fantasy relevant.
Marcus Semien, 62
Semien was great last year. He's alright this year. At age 33, the decline isn't too surprising.
Nick Gonzales, 61
You all know I love Nick, and even after his recent slump, he retains a nice 61 Gerbil Score. He's ridiculously fast, has an elite Sweet-Spot percentile, and hits the ball pretty hard on top of his nice Barrel %. There's a ton of upside here.
Josh Smith, 59 An .882 OPS against LHP and .840 OPS against RHP is remarkably impressive for a guy that was just Jung's replacement. Smith is a solid hitter that really never has to be on the bench.
Brice Turang, 59. + Brice is a speed demon with good bat-to-ball skills, even if he doesn't hit it particularly hard. His .288 BA and .763 are respectable considering he doesn't excel at any of the most weighted metrics.
Ezequial Tovar, 59
Tovar is beginning to gain some fantasy relevance in his 3rd year thanks to his nice Sweet-Spot % and good speed. He actually hits better away from Coors, which could be considered encouraging. There's no reliance on altitude.
C
Joey Ortiz, 57 Ortiz comes in at a solid score of 15. Although he has an .835 OPS and .275 BA, there are some harsh penalities for a complete lack of sweet-spot %, hard-hit%, and barrel%. His xwOBA and batting run value, however, keep his score in a respectable range due to high weights. I wanted to make sure guys with extremely bizarre profiles like this weren't destroyed for a lack of peripheral power, so to speak, and it seems to have worked well enough. One thing to note about Ortiz is he's a righty masher, which also got im a few extra points on top. Ortiz is a guy you can comfortably play against RHP, and avoid LHP at all cost. Just know there's a ceiling here unless he either A: Finds power, or B: finds sweet-spot.
Ha-Seong Kim, 56. + No power upside, but a nice Sweet-Spot player that excels at making contact with the ball and steals bases. Hopefully the warm weathers helps the ball carry a bit more, he needs it.
Zach Neto, 56 Barrels the ball at a pretty nice clip and has a high xSLG. There's power potential here if the sweet-spot comes along.
Oneil Cruz, 54
Why is this guy still facing LHP? If you own Oneil Cruz, for the love of god, find someone to platoon him with.
Anthony Volpe, 51. + I'm a Yankees fan and I love Volpe, but it may be time to admit the power profile was overstated for a 5'9 athletic SS. Volpe needs to work on hitting the Sweet-Spot of the ball, that's where his fantasy potential lies. Until then, he's a good fantasy asset purely because of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and nothing else.
Isaac Paredes, 47 Batting Run Value and counting stats are carrying Isaac. As long as his Sweet-Spot remains high and he continues to get on base, he'll continue to get the big hits and drive in runs.
Ozzie Albies, 45 +
Ozzie gets + flair purely because of who he is and what he's done in the past, but he's been fairly miserable this year, both in production and on the statcast. He'll warm up eventually...right?
Nolan Gorman, 42 He excels at two stats I weighed highly, which is why he's managed to creep his way up here with a .191 BA. Prime Gallo without speed. Add him if you're desperate for power, and never start him vs a lefty.
Maikel Garcia, 42 + Stolen bases and Hard-Hit Rates plus some strong contact peripherals are doing heavy lifting for a guy that only has a .625 OPS. Hopefully the positive regression comes soon. There's upside here, which is probably why Maikel owners are so frustrated.
Masyn Winn, 41 Winn can help soldify ratios and add the occasional SB. There's zero power upside.
Brendan Rodgers, 43 + Before injuring himself, Brendan was on a roll, hitting close to .300 over several weeks, and his statcast warmed up significantly. After April, it was basically frozen blue, but he's recovered enough to raise his xBA and Hard-Hit rates to very respectable 82nd percentile and 72nd percentile numbers.
C-
Andrés Giménez, 36. +
Jeremy Peña, 36
Luis Renfigo, 36. +
Bryson Sott, 32 +
There's value here, but not enough for me to own him in a categories league. Every dayyou start him for steals, is a day you're actively killing ratios.
Luis Arraez, 29 He has to hit near .400 or he's not very valuable. .310 isn't good enough for a guy with 2 HRs and a .345 OBP. Most of his value is purely from runs and BA.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 29
Gleyber Torres, 25 I think he's mentally chcked out.
Watching and waiting on a larger sample size from Wisely and a few other guys.
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