Baseball is back, and with it, another five months of the greatest game on earth - Fantasy Baseball. The constant looking at our phones for updates, and dopamine hits from notifications like "Aaron Judge hit a 600 Ft. Dong!" And we get this every day for almost half a year? Damn, we're lucky we're so into this. Give yourself a pat on the back for having such a cool hobby. Here I've compiled a pretty simple list, that list being of players I'd draft 10 positions or higher in the draft VS their ADP. Every year, I see players going at positions that kind of make me gasp for breath and fall to the ground in utter disbelief. "Oh my god honey, are you okay? Do I need to call 911? What's wrong?!" "...Kerry Carpenter is being drafted at an ADP of 174...." Some of these players are pretty well-established and are being marginally disrespected. Some are fringe guys that I see potential in for a breakout season, and others aren't even being drafted but I think are worthy of being on rosters through waivers. Hopefully we can find some gems early. I'm not doing anything crazy like Gerbil Scores and deep-dives, at least not yet. But if I do get back into the weekly waiver wire pieces, expect some more statistical deep dives like last year. Cheers. Ryan Weathers (302)
Weathers was one of my top waiver pickups for the 2024 season, as he posted six straight quality starts from May to June and highlighted several of my waiver wire articles. This was when I became familiar with Weathers, as I tuned in for most of these starts to see exactly what the deal was. How was this baby-faced, pitcher-haired son of a 10 WAR MLB player flying under the radar down in MIA? What I saw was some extremely filthy pitching. Weathers was throwing up to 99 MPH with one of the more interesting sweepers in baseball. His 4-seam, change, and sinker all cover the same quadrant of the plate with more horizontal break than the MLB average and some nice velocity differences from 86 MPH up to 99 MPH, but the sweeper is it's own beast. It has a 3.0 run value to go along with a whopping 50% whiff rate. Thus far in the spring, his velocity has consistently been solid, hitting 99 mph often and he looks primed for a career year. With an ace fastball and an exemplary pitch mix, expect Ryan Weathers to have a breakout season barring another finger injury.
Michael Soroka (503) Don't look now but Michael Soroka's velocity is up from 93 mph in the 2024 camapign to 96 mph this spring, and is complimenting a nasty 82 mph slider. It's taken years, but it's finally happened - Mike Soroka has made it back to 100 hp. We all remember what a healthy Soroka looks like and it seems like he may be the easiest add of the season. https://www.mlb.com/video/michael-soroka-strikes-out-six-in-spring-start
Garrett Mitchell (267)
Mitchell's 2024 spring training was exemplary before he suffered an injury that shut him down until July. Through the final months of the season, he compiled a solid .255 BA and .811 OPS. It really feels like this will finally be the year where this prototypical 5-tool outfielder makes himself well-known to the baseball world (something I'm now saying for a 3rd straight year). With both elite bat speed and sprint speed, a quiet 20/30 season isn't off the table for Mitchell.
Sean Burke (462)
Burke was dominant in limited action, posting a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 4 games. His statcast was equally impressive with elite percentiles across K, Whiff, and Chase percentages. On top of 89th percentile extension, Burke has solid fastball velocity - all the makings of a potential ace. I'm a sucker for perceived velocity and high extension, think Glasnow and Degrom, and Burke is right there with excellent pitching form.
To go with his excellent fastball, Burke features a slider that we hope to see improve from a .294 xBA and a changeup that, although used sparingly, seems like the perfect putaway pitch at a 40% rate.
Patrick Bailey (325)
Bailey was looking primed for a breakout season in 2024 before suffering a concussion that really put a damper on things. He missed several weeks of playing time and wasn't quite the same player when he returned. Still, Bailey cemented himself as the best defensive catcher in baseball and has the statcast peripherals to suggest that elite hitting will soon follow.
Bailey excels at squaring up the ball and hitting the sweet spot, and readers from last year know how big I am on sweet-spot %. To go alongside those excellent contact numbers, he hits the ball quite hard, coming in at a 66th percentile hard-hit%. Pre-concussion, all of these numbers were significantly higher too, so keep that in mind. It seems the one thing keeping Bailey from being an elite hitter is his barrel %. I'll gladly roster a catcher that shows such high potential between contact numbers and plate discipline, and is set to have a lot of playtime due to elite defense. I also believe with a healthy Lee and Wade, and an all-star in Heliot Ramos, Bailey will see plenty of RBI opportunities right at the middle of the lineup.
Ivan Herrera (249)
With Wilson Contreras making the move to 1b, it's Herrera's time to shine has come. Herrera was someone I mentioned quite a few times last year, but unfortunately was never able to find consistent playing time other than when Contreras was injured. Still, Herrera was able to post a solid .800 OPS. At C, that's a rare feat and should have Herrera being a popular breakout pick in 2025. His peripherals are all super strong, including an elite sweet-spot % to go alongside some excellent bat speed. And let's not overlook the fact that he destroys RHP - 75% of pitchers are right handed in the MLB. Always keep that in mind when drafting, I do.
Jose Soriano (321)
Watching Jose Soriano pitch was a pleasure last year. I've never seen a pitcher throw so much gas only to get groundball after groundball, but it's not a bad thing. This guy is a QS beast that only became a starter in 2024 after transitioning from the bullpen, and looked extremely comfortable doing so. His knack for inducing groundballs on a sinker that averages 98 mph really helps him keep a healthy pitch count game after game, and I truly believe he can finish top ten in quality starts this season. If any of Soriano's other pitches improve going into 2025, he's primed to be a gem. He has stuff few other pitchers have.
Will Warren (457)
Will Warren had an extremely rough MLB debut, compiling a nasty 10.32 ERA to begin his career. But not all hope is lost with Warren, who is now primed to get starts with Cole on the shelf for the year. His fastball had a remarkable .074 BA against and it's a pitch he threw 30% of the time, trending upward as the season closed. This trend upward showed that he and the Yankees coaches were understanding just how dominant his fastball was compared to his other pitches, which were frankly shit. I wouldn't be surprised to see Warren bump his 4-seam usage up to 50% and come in with improved secondary pitches.
Trevor Larnach (333) As much as I hyped up Larnach throughout 2024, he didn't quite breakout like I expected. Still, a .772 OPS for someone who mashes RHP isn't too shabby. His statcast metrics are all extremely solid, and he's coming into 2025 with an expanded role that should see him get over 400 ABs this season. The potential is obvious and there's not much else to say.
Tomoyuki Sugano (392)
He's been stellar through Spring, particularly excelling at filling up the strike-zone and painting the black. He has a 0.00 ERA through 10 spring training innings.
https://www.mlb.com/news/tomoyuki-sugano-spring-training-debut-orioles#:~:text=The%20velocity%20on%20Sugano's%20four,out%20at%2093%2C%20per%20Statcast.
Curtis Mead (446)
Mead claims he's added 15-20 lbs. of muscle to improve his bat speed (which was already excellent) and drive the ball. For a guy who excels at finding the sweet spot, this is a pretty good idea. Well, it seems like getting swole is working thus far - this dude has a .576 BA through Spring.
Keaton Winn (lol)
I came into 2024 super hot on Winn, and he looked fantastic...for a bit. His velocity had him touching 98 MPH at times and his splitter was devastating, but the injuries quickly shut down a campaign that had started promisingly. Forearm and nerve issues led to season ending surgery, but not before he tried to push through the injury, leading to a bunch of lousy performances.
I'm still in on a healthy Winn, though, and I'll at least be monitoring his situation. His splitter/fastball combo is just too good to ignore.
Kerry Carpenter (175)
The only thing preventing a Kerry Carpenter breakout season with 30+ HRs are persistent health issues. Carpenter had an absurd .994 OPS against RHP last season, making him the ultimate platoon piece to pair with a LHP masher for the rare days he faces a southpaw, where he's completely worthless. That kind of production against RHP is something I welcome to my team.
Jung Hoo Lee (222)
The idea of a fully healthy Jung Hoo Lee setting the table for Heliot Ramos, LaMonte Wade Jr. Matt Chapman, and Tyler Fitzegerald has me pretty excited for the 2025 SF Giants. Lee showed a lot of good things last season before an injury ended his season, including an elite ability to square up on the ball and excellent plate discipline. Now healthy and familiar with MLB pitching and having an excellent Spring, a solid 2025 campaign is certainly on the table.
Matt McLain (89)
Back in 2023, I truly believed Matt McLain could have won ROTY over Carroll had he played a full campaign. I even wrote a whole piece about it: https://www.gerbilsports.com/post/the-nl-rookie-of-the-year-race-is-more-interesting-than-you-think
I was a very big Matt McLain fan.
I still am going into 2025. Early reports indicate he's hitting the ball with power in BP coming off shoulder surgery that had him miss the entire 2024 campaign. Aside from having both solid power and contact ability, McLain is more of a threat on the basepaths than his 14 steals in 2023 suggest. Most of those 14 steals came later in the season when he seemingly became much more comfortable stealing. Paired with Elly, these two could absolutely dominate the base paths and accumulate stolen bases and runs at a ridiculous rate.
Riley Greene (96)
I thought 2024 was for sure going to be Greene's breakout campaign, but it didn't quite shake out that way. Although his statcast metrics are excellent and 24 HRs with an .827 OPS are solid, it feels like there's more there for Greene. He's steadily improved every season since his rookie campaign in 2022, and I see no reason why Greene can't hit 30 HRs with an .850 OPS in 2025 if the trend continues. With Colt Keith and Parker Meadows possibly improving their ability to get on base and protect Greene in the lineup, Greene should be an excellent fantasy asset.
Seth Halvorsen (410) This guy is absolutely filthy and will be a solid closer for a bad team. Just grab him on waivers and enjoy some excellent ratio boosts with the occasional save.
LaMonte Wade Jr. (355)
Wade Jr. was having the best OBP year in the MLB before injuries really took a toll on him, limiting him to only 331 ABs and leading to inconsistency towards the back half of the season. Still, it's hard to ignore the red hot statcast metrics and his spot at the top of the SF order going into 2025. If he remains healthy, I'd welcome a ..370 to .380 OBP across 500 ABs.
Matt Wallner (270)
If you didn't want Riley Greene, that's okay, because you can Temu Greene at a much better price! Wallner is an automatic set against RHP with a stellar .953 OPS. He's in line to get more ABs this year and 25 HRs isn't off the table. He's an excellent masher as seen below, and a perfect pick for a platoon if you have the roster space.
Heliot Ramos (178)
Anyone who followed me even a bit last year knows Heliot is my fucking guy, which is why it was so painful to watch him tail off towards the end of the season. 22 HRs and a .791 OPS is respectable, but underwhelming when you see just how good he was in the first half of the season. The dude straight up looked like Judge,
The bat speed and power is all still there and there's no reason to expect anything but a solid campaign from Ramos, but unless he can improve against RHP, there's always going to be a ceiling on what he can accomplish. With a 1.189 OPS against LHP, he's perfect for a platoon, and hopefully he finds a better stroke against RHP.
MacKenzie Gore (212) Gore is everyone's favorite breakout darling year after year, but I really think this is finally going to be the year. After an up and down season, Gore closed out 2024 strong, giving up only 3 runs in 5 September starts to go with 4 quality starts. And so far, he looks every bit as good through Spring. We know his stuff is great and there's really not much else to say about Gore other than he just needs to throw his curveball more.
Pavin Smith (350)
I spent way too many hours staring at bat-tracking data last year, trying to find trends and through those trends, hidden gems. Pavin Smith was pesky in that he constantly showed up as someone who should be knocking on the door of being a masher. This guy's swing speed, ability to square up the ball, and blasts/ swing and contact were elite every time I went through the data. For someone who hits the ball so ridiculously well, you'd think he could find more than 137 ABs. But a tale as old as time explains it all: splits. Here we have another destroyer of RHP, to the tune of a .920 OPS. Still though, 137 ABs still seems like way too few, right? With 75% of MLB pitching being RHP, shouldn't he have gotten more?
The answer is yes, but unfortunately for Smith, Joc Pederson happened to fulfill the SAME exact niche. Now Pederson is in Texas, and Smith is primed for all of the platoon ABs against RHP. This man right here is a sleeper.
Osvaldo Bido (436)
Bido was excellent through 16 starts in 2024 and seems primed to lock down a spot in the starting rotation. With a decent K rate and excellent ability to avoid hard contact, Bido was almost a sure bet to not give up too much damage. The sudden breakthrough at age 29 in his second big league season can be attributed to some serious pitch mix changes. He went from 36% slider/ 28% 4-seam in 2023 to 40% 4-seam/ 21% slider in 2024. He also cut back on his sinker, going from 24% in 2023 to 9% in 2024. With a solid pitch mix going in 2025, Bido is a good bet at his ADP.
Jonathan Aranda
6 HRs in 128 ABs with a .738 OPS wasn't too shabby for Aranda, and going into 2025, he may very well be primed for a a strong campaign depending on what happens with Yandy Diaz. He's excellent at squaring up on the ball and has fantastic power - a 97th percentile Barrel % and 90th percentile Hard-Hit% really can't be ignored. And with that power, some surprisingly solid plate disipline - above averaged Whiff and Chase rates. If Yandy gets traded or gets injured, Aranda is a must-add.
Luis L. Ortiz (383)
Ortiz was an excellent waiver add last year and should remain a high-upside add in 2025. His fastball is electric and at times looked untouchable. Despite underwhelming statcast metrics, his fangraphs data was solid:
He's been absolutely miserable through Spring though.
Spencer Horwitz (358)
Horwitz is a guy I rocked with for the majority of the 2024 season and I plan on keeping a close eye on him out in Pitt. He's slow as molasses, which limits the value of his excellent OBP a bit, but he should still be a competent run producer. A guy who gets on base and makes good contact will always find a place on a roster in lieu of injury.
Nolan Schanuel (275)
6'4, 220 lbs....and no power to really speak of. One solid swing adjustment for a 23 year old hitter with excellent contact and plate discipline, and suddenly those 14 HRs become 25 HRs. There's an obvious amount of potential here and may be worth a risk. Here's to hoping he enters 2025 with a new launch angle.
Bryan Woo (128)
I told everyone Woo is the best pitcher in SEA before last season started, and I still believe it. Unfortunately, his availability makes him a risky proposition. But when he pitches, his fastball is truly an untouchable thing of beauty. That thing has ride for days. To get on base against Woo, you have to swing,because he sure as hell isn't allowing a BB. And swinging againstWoo usually results in a very poor outcome, even when you know it's going to be a fastball.
Zack Gelof (220)
Gelof was a hero for my squad in 2023, but an oblique injury made him near useless in 2024. His statcast was down significantly across the board, including his sprint speed, which really leads me to believe his body never truly healed, even though he played through it. A full offseason of rest may be what Gelof needed to regain his groove.
Hayden Wesneski (461)
Wesneski pitched well enough to earn a spot in Chicago's rotation, but was demoted to a relief role when Jordan Wicks returned from injury. He wasn't nearly as effective in that role, and became pretty useless in fantasy terms. Now he has the opportunity to earn a spot in Houston's starting rotation, and they often do well with making the most of a pitcher's stuff. I could see Wesneski being quietly solid for Houston much like other pitcher's seem to be.
Alec Burleson (210)
A .535 OPS in 2022. A .690 OPS in 2023. A .734 OPS in 2024. An... .800 OPS in 2025?
Burleson has shown steady improvement every season since entering the league and there's no reason to think 2025 will be any different. A 25 HR, .275 season isn't off the table for a hitter that makes frequent, solid contact.
Brent Rooker (55) An ADP of 55 for a guy who hit 39 HRs with .927 OPS is silly as hell. I get guys like James Wood and Wyatt Langford are exciting, but there's zero chance I'm taking them before Rooker who continues to show he's no fluke.
Hayden Birdsong (399)
Birdsong was promoted several months into the 2024 campaign and was immediately good TV. His stuff was electric, if not erratic, leading to some lousy outings to go with the solid ones. Growing pains were expected for the 22 year old as he was promoted after only pitching 9 innings at AAA, and what he did show was exciting and positive.
Now, through 12 Spring innings, he has an ERA 0.75 to go with a .50 WHIP. Birdsong is very much worth a gamble.
Brady Singer (352)
Singer was a boring but effective pitcher in 2024, making him one of the better streaming options in fantasy baseball. Going into 2025, Singer is slightly more exciting, as he's added a cutter to his repetoire, and it's gotten good results through Spring Training, according to the Reds subreddit. Sometimes adding one pitch can completely transform a pitcher, and for that reason Singer is one to watch.
Reese Olson (269)
Reese Olson is hardly a secret in the fantasy community, and I'm sure it's no surprise to anyone that I believe he's worth a much earlier pick, especially given the fact that he's seen a velocity increase this Spring. His 4-seam and sinker are both averaging 96 MPH, up 2 MPH over last season. He's probably going to have a season worth way more than an ADP of 269.
Cristopher Sanchez (157) Alongside Woo, Gil, and Ranger Suarez, Sanchez highlighted my very first writeup of 2024. Here he is again in 2025, this time well-known, because an ADP of 157 still seems too low. He's still fantastic for all of the same reasons I outlined last year - his pitches have ridiculous amounts of movement. If you've been following spring training, Sanchez has seen a significant increase in fastball velocity, now touching 98 mph. If that kind of velocity jump holds, he may be in line for a career year, much like Reese Olson.
Casey Mize
I hyped up Mize several times last year, and each time he completely let me down. Despite his velocity returning, he couldn't get the ball past hitters and paid for it. It was clear he was still recovering from surgery in 2022. Entering the 2025 campaign, Mize's velocity is up even more, touching 99 MPH, and he's currently dominating Spring Training with a 0.00 ERA through 11 innings of work. It looks like I was a year early, but Mize has finally arrived. With elite velocity and extension, Mize could wind up being a K machine.
Dane Myers
Just have that gut feeling here. This dude is jacked and fast, and hits the ball hard. Gonna be one of those weird seasons where the random 29 year old pops off.
