Fantasy Baseball Tier List, Take Two: Sizzling Summertime Pitching - Ranking Over 30 Starting Pitchers, Including Hidden Gems.

Yesterday I released a fantasy baseball pitching tier list, but I really wasn't satisfied with the way it turned out, and neither were you. The images became rather blurry, and I didn't put any effort into describing why I ranked some players as what may seem egregiously high. What I released yesterday took me three hours on its own, as there was a lot involved in going through over 30 pitchers, including guys that don't even see rosters in many leagues. Looking for gems for deeper leagues can be a lot. And worse yet, the tier-maker site is complete shit to work with. Basically, I just put out something with quality I'm not happy with. I've decided to just sit down, smoke a fat bowl, and cleaning this up a bit while also adding more. I'll be writing longer blurbs for the upper-tier guys, and less for the lower tier guys (unless I feel super enthuiastic about them). Otherwise this will take me 10+ hours. But. I'll definitely fill in more and more as the week progresses, hopefully reaching the bottom of the list. But my next goal is to prepare the next waiver wire list and tier list (Infield). The sooner I get them out, the sooner people can evaluate trades.

One issue people had with my list is that they feel as though it rewards recency and doesn't take a larger sample size into account. To that I say, you're somewhat correct. I do reward recent performance, but not entirely because it's recent. If you go back to my very first column, you'll see pitchers like Bryan Woo, Luis Gil and Ranger Suarez featured. Their performance has, fortunately, alligned with my projections; my projections aren't just aligning with their performance. My rankings may seem reactionary, and in some cases they are, but there's a method to my madness. Maybe a fresh perspective will be useful for you, even if you hate it! (If you're reading right now, I've just decided to publish live before posting on social media. It's a work in progress.)

Legend

SS: These are the pitchers that can carry any given week, and will carry most weeks. They will go deep into games, rack up tons of Ks with few BBs, and earn Quality Starts more often than not. If traded for a bat, the bat should be elite. If they throw some kind of 12+ K game, no-hitter, or CGS, you aren't extremely surprised.

S: These are the pitchers that you can expect to be fantastic each week, but may come with a bit more inconsistency or a flaw that you won't find in SS. They are remarkably consistent, but may not have the same ceiling as the guys in SS. They all have the potential to reach SS, but could also move to A with a bad stretch of games.

A+: This is a tier reserved for young guys with filthy stuff that have the potential to move into S or SS tier in the future, but could also wind up in B with a poor stretch of games. There's a lot of volatiliy here. They need to show more consistency, a larger sample size, or both. A stellar performance worthy of SS tier wouldn't surprised, but neither would the occasional struggle. Think of this as the high-ceiling category. A: Aces that will reliably show up most weeks and give you a strong perfromance in several categories. Some have overwhelming stuff but struggle in certain areas. Some have less impressive stuff, but are remarkably consistent and efficient. B: Guys you can expect to throw a QS or rack up Ks whenever they take the mound, but are less consistent than A tier. Some may be performing as well as the S tier pitchers, but they come with question marks that leave me hesitant, like Yu Darvish. These are still confident starts with ace upside. Some of these guys have extremely high ceilings, like Chris Sale, but come with the understanding that an injury or regression may occur any given start, for example. C: Pitchers you feel confident starting, but understand bad starts are going to happen. There will be more quality performances than there are struggles, and benching based on matchups is plausible based on context. If they demonstrate more consistency, they can move to B.

D: There are numerous reasons a pitcher winds up here: Over-performing in relation to peripherals.

Coming off injury and shaking off rust.

Small Sample Size.

Great stuff but needs to show consistency.

Aged veteran who may or may not have more in the tank.

Some of these guys are streams, others are holds, but all have a place on a fantasy team that is struggling or looking for a breakout candidate. Justin Steele is clearly a hold, for example. He's coming off injury and there are signs he'll be good. Jose Urena would most likely be a stream, as he's been pitching well but at his age and with his track record, we regression is a possibility. Seth Lugo is a hold, but I'm extremely skeptical of his peripherals, and could be a drop in the future. Taj Bradley has remarkable stuff, but he needs to work on his control, or he may wind up sinking your ratios any given week. SS

Tyler Glasnow -

Every time Tyler Glasnow takes the mound, there's an expectation he'll throw 10Ks. There's just not many pitchers you can say that about. While he's run into a bit of trouble in his previous two starts, it's hard to blame him for Elly stealing 4 bases and manufacturing multiple runs through his ridiculous ability. The Arizona game was a bit rough, but he still looked fairly sharp and conceded a few unfortunate hits. With a 99th percentile extension and a 96 MPH fastball, Glasnow remains one of the most challenging pitchers to face on any given night. It's not often you find a pitcher that excels at K% while also excelling at BB% and GB%. Glasnow will continue to pump out Quality Starts, as he's pitched 6 innings or more in 7 games already.

Ranger Suarez Ranger has easily been the best pitcher in baseball this year, and I'd argue his stats should be even better. I've watched every single start over the past month, and I watched him "struggle" twice in the pouring rain. And yes, those struggles were still excellent performances, including a quality start. Watching Ranger pitch is quite remarkable. His arm action is deceptive and it just seems like the ball is moving and curving the entire way to the plate, always to wind up perfectly in the corner. Hitters look utterly helpless against his curveball and changeup in pitchers' counts, and their whiff rates reflect that - 32% on the curveball and 40% on the changeup. Meanwhile, his primary pitch a sinker with excellent movement and has a .186 BA against. He's unhittable, whether he fills the zone or makes pitchers chase. This may seem like a reactionary pick, but this is what's been expected of Ranger since he displayed this level of dominance in 2021 when he had a 1.36 ERA across 106 innings. Ask your local Phillies fan about this, and they'll confirm this to be the common belief. He's been dealing with injuries for years, and he's healthy now. That's just how it goes sometimes.

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler has been utterly dominant this season, wielding a pristine 2.53 ERA and .98 WHIP. But what makes it more impressive is the fact that he's only pitched under 6 innings twice this season. When I think of the top workhorse in the MLB, Wheeler is the first guy that comes to mind. His four-seam fastball is utterly dominant despite not having slightly-above average velocity, generating a .196 BA against and 29.7% whiff rate. He tunnels this pitch with a sinker that generates excellent groundball rates. Essentially, he has two putaway fastballs that look identical coming out, but serve entirely different functions - and both perform their function well. But wait, there's more! He has a good sweeper that he throws only 11% of the time that has a tremendous whiff rate of 34% and K rate of 35%. Zack Wheeler has mastered his pitch mix and the location of those pitches to become one of the most efficient pitchers in the league

Shota Imanaga -

Shota has been nothing short of magical as a rookie, and I'm certainly not going to sell him short. His 4-seam fastball has an incredible run value of 14 yet only has average velcoity of 92 MPH. The secret sauce here is that it has 13.9 inches of drop, while also having 9.8 inches of break. This may seem like an exaggeration, but kind of think of it like a fast-ball that is going through an identity crisis and wants to be a knuckleball. But we can't forget about his splitter, which induces a ridiculous 45.7% whiff rate and 36% K rate. What makes this pitch so deadly is the fact that it has well-below average drop on it. It's essentially a flat splitter that he tunnels with his sinker-esque 4 seam fastball. Usually it's the splitter that drops and the fastball that remains flat. I can honestly see how this drives hitters crazy. I've tagged him as a candidate for potential regression due to a lacking Hard-Hit% and GB%, which indicates hitters are both hitting the ball hard and in the air, yet I can't discount the magic of his pitch mix.

Tanner Houck -

Houck has been fantastic, period. A 1,94 WHIP and 1.94 ERA are exemplary. Yet his peripherals don't seem to entirely match the performance. An xBA of .249 and xERA of 3.26 indicate regression is on the horizon, but this only means we need to take a deeper look at how he's finding success right now.

We immediately see why he's so succesful - he has insane movement across all of his pitches. Especially that slider, with a whopping 9.1 inches of horizontal movement to go along with 2.7 inches of drop. It's arguably the best slider in baseball, and had racked up a remarkable 10 run value. Think Manoah's slider the year he received Cy Young Votes - the same slider he lost and then suddenly became a bad pitcher. As long as this slider is working, regression isn't going to happen, despite the peripehrals. It's unhittable.

Joe Ryan

I absolutely love Joe Ryan this season and would love to trade for him. In 2023, Joe Ryan had a 57th percentile extension. This year? 83rd percentile. On top of that, he's gone fron a 23rd percentile fastball velocity to 44th percentile - good for a 1.4 MPH increase. This increased perceived velocity and velocity now has his fastball sitting around a 96 MPH perceived velocity. Basically, he's reinvented himself as a pitcher, and it's paid dividends thus far. But beyond the fastball, the pitch receiving the most benefit is his splitter, which has gone from 82 MPH to an insane 89 MPH. Joe Ryan's new mechanics have him looking like an ace that will continue to go deep into games and rack up QS.

Corbin Burnes+ What a sexy statcast - no peripheral is below average. Burnes is nearly the perfect pitcher, and I heavily considered putting him in SS tier, which I believe he will reach in the very near future. He's tossed 6 straight QS. Yet somehow, he keeps finding himself in minor jams and allowing more runs than you'd expect. His WHIPs across the last 6 starts: 1.5, 1.33, 1.33, 1.26, .83, 1.0. He's not exactly helping teams win WHIP categories, and his Ks have also been rather modest for such a good pitcher. This is why I currently have him in S tier trending towards SS.

Tarik Skubal

In 2023, Skubal introduced his elite talent to the world to the tune of a 1.8 ERA and .90 WHIP alongside dominant peripherals. Unfortunately, he only pitched 10 games, and we didn't know exactly what to expect coming into this season. It turns out what we saw from him in 2023 was entirely real and Skubal believers are reaping the benefits. Unfortunately for me, he slipped under my radar and I never saw his dominant 2023 peripherals. Tarik is an interesting pitcher in that his stuff all has below average movement, and he simply overwhelmes batters with velocity and location. When they sit fastball, he throws an 85 MPH changeup that generates a remarkable 44% whiff rate. That's a 11-13 MPH gap between changeup and fastball, and both look the same coming out due to the flatness of his pitches. Quite unhittable.

Dylan Cease-

After a 2023 campign that saw a noticeable decline in Cease's fastball, and thus his production, Cease is back to being an elite pitcher. His fastball velo is back up to 92nd percentile, up from the 77th percentile we saw last year. With his fastball possessing a run value of 3 (up from -3 last year) and his slider a value of 5, he's allowed his curveball to be a more respectable putaway pitch at a 40% whiff rate vs 25% in 2023. He's now a 3 pitch pitcher, whereas he was one pitch pitcher last year (only his slider worked). Expect his strong campaign to continue.

A+

Luis Gil+

I know a lot of people find it problematic that I'm including guys like Luis Gil, with small sample sizes, so highly in my tier list. I understand a lot of fantasy players are conservative, and want to draft older guys with proven track records, but I don't believe that's the best philosophy for putting together a super team. There's just too many talented pitchers, like Luis Gil, that exist and can be found early if you know where to look. Luis Gil is not here because of recency bias - I included him in my very first column piece, alongside Ranger Suarez. He's here because he's lived up to my expectations and then some, so of course I'm high on my own sleeper pick! Wouldn't you be? Just one glance at Gil's peripherals tells you everything you need to know about who he is as a pitcher. His stuff is so damned elite that he just continues to fill the strikzone and people continue to be unable to hit him. Seriously. He has a 20th percentile chase rate and he can't fool people outside the zone, which has resulted in a poor BB%. Yet hitters are only hitting .151 against his fastball, which he throws a whopping 55% of the time. And his changeup that he throws 27.2% of the time? .130 BA against. And remember, he's throwing these for strikes and hitters still can't touch it. They aren't fooled, they're just overwhelmed. Gil is a force of nature and his best comparison is Tyler Glasnow, with both featuring dominant velocity and extension (though a bit less here). They are masters of perceived velocity.

Bryan Woo Another guy who was featured in my very first column, while he was on the IL, but also another guy people will scream has a small sample size. That's why I also included his 2023 peripherals, which were arguably the strongest of all the Mariners' pitchers in 2023 - yes, even Logan Gilbert. He had an excellent rookie season from a statcast perspective. So naturally, it wouldn't be crazy to expect a jump as sophomore, and wa-la, he's made the jump! Coming off the IL, Woo was untouchable through 3 AAA rehab starts. He hasn't missed a beat after returning to the rotation, pitching to a .57 ERA and .51 WHIP.

In fact, his profile is remarkably similar to Gil, in that he fills the strikezone with elite stuff, specfically a fastball that has a .111 BA against and 32.8% whiff rate. While the movement might not seem elite at first glance, the break is deceptive, and the pitch comes out at an extremely deceptive arm angle. If you want to read more about this, check out this neat piece I found. It goes into better detail than I ever could! https://pitcherlist.com/bryan-woos-repertoire-is-the-blueprint-for-modern-pitching/

Logan Gilbert +

And here we have the concensus best-pitcher on the Mariners (for now), Mr. Logan Gilbert. Gilbert, much like last year, is still an elite starting pitcher than is going to go deep into games and get Ks and QS. However, he hasn't quite taken the leap I've expected. Last year, Gilbert's BB% sat at the shining 95th percentile. Unfortunately, this year, it's dropped to the 58th percentile. Why exactly did this happen? He's attempted to improve his K rate, and he has - up from the 58th to 67th percentile and whiff rate - up from 52nd to 76th percentile. And like I said, this has come at the cost of walking more batters. But what exactly is he doing differently that's resulted in this change?:

As we can see above,Gilbert's introduced a new pitch, a cutter, seemingly designed to keep hitters off-balance against his 4-seam fastball, which was a completely average pitch for him last year (a .280 BA against is particularly troublesome). He was filling up the strikezone with that fastball, which prevented walks, but it also didn't help is overall profile. Now that he's throwing a cutter, he's living on the edges more often, which is resulting in more walks, but also more off-balance swings that generate whiffs and Ks. If there's any take away here, it's that Gilbert is on the verge of mastering his pitch mix and talent. The fact that he's this good while experimenting is particularly scary. I just know he can be better. Gilbert's profile is undeibably similar to Glasnow's, and he can be even better.

Cole Ragans

I actually have a funny anecdote about Ragans. I was trying to get Ragans from a league-mate, and unknown to me, he turned out to be an absolute Ragans super-fan. The negotiations broke down so much that he wound up telling me he wouldn't even trade Ragans to me if I offered him Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm. He might be a bit crazy for Ragans, but you know what? Ragans is also crazy good and a joy to watch on an extremely fun super-team. Assuming both Ranger and Bohm would regress back when these negotiations took place, which was like a month ago, had some logic to it. And so did thinking Ragans would experience positive regression, which he most certainly has. Ragans stuff is absolutely filthy, featuring both velocity and movement, and is carried by a fastball that is as potent as Luis Gil's. And much like Luis Gil, he just fills the strikezone with that fastball. Why wouldn't you, when it boasts a .165 BA against? His changeup, which he throws 26% of the time, is the perfect compliment to that fastball, wiping out hitters for a 32% K rate and 43% K rate. One thing holding Ragans back is his absolutely terrible cutter, which he should probably just stop throwing all-together, but especially 12% of the time. If Ragans just decided to use his curveball more often instead, he could be unstoppable.

Paul Skenes Degrom 2.0. Enjoy.

Jared Jones I love Jared Jones, and he's my 2024 White Whale. I'm just so fucking sad I didn't notice him right away because he's just so fun to watch. Like Glasnow and Gil, Jared Jones is a master of perceived velocity, featuring an 84th percentile extension to go alongside a 94th percentile velo. This has his perceived velocity hovering around 100-101 on the fastball. And because hitters respect that fastball so much, they are just being completely obliterated by his slider that looks exactly like his fastball coming out. It has a .157 BA against and 42% whiff rate. As you can tell, perceived velocity is something I love in a pitcher. Jones is currently a 2 pitch pitcher, however, so there's possibly even more goodness to come if he can get his curveball working.

A Aaron Nola

Now we're in A tier, and we're going to start to see some aces with peripherals that just aren't as spicy as some of the guys listed above. That's not a knock on Nola - we all know he's an excellent pitcher. But he's also known as a crafty, gritty pitcher who can finnesse his way to a quality start. A "pitcher's pitcher." That's kind of a euphemism for "doesn't have great stuff." Do I think that's also an exaggeration? Sure. His pitch arsenal has above-average horizontal movement across the board and when you combine that with his excellent extension, control, and arm-angle, you have a pitcher that can be an ace without overwhelming velocity, and who also won't regress even if the peripherals suggest it might happen. Nola is a unique pitcher in that his primary pitch is a curveball that he throws 31% of the time and sets up his fastball. Both are good pitches, but make no mistake, it's the curveball that allows the fastball to be successful. You all know I love a piping-hot red statcast, and that I'm low on low icy-blue peripherals, but I do believe some guys transcend that. And who's to say the peripherals don't begin to get better, and that he's simply survived being a little rusty to begin the season? Either way, as long his curveball continues to be excellent, so will he.

Zac Gallen - Much like Nola, Gallen isn't really doing much to impress us here. His stats are a bit more modest - a 3.20 ERA and 1.13 WHIP- which aren't exactly goign to set the world on fire - but he's still thrown 6 QS this season and contunues to be a workhorse. I'm not as high on Gallen, however, with that 7th percentile hard-hit rate and 47th percentile ground ball %. Those are the types of peripherals that can really lead to a long-ball issue, and that's not something Nola is dealing with right now. I'm a bit worried about Gallen and considered putting him in B tier, but quality starts can't be ignored. Even more concerning is that his fastball has a run value of only 4, whereas it was signficantly higher in recent years. Check it:

He hasn't had a run value under 10 on his fastball since COVID hit, so it's pretty alarming to see a .280 BA against and a 2 run value. If hitters start sitting on the curveball, there could be some serious issues. I'm not saying he's a sell high, but if you can, you wouldn't be remiss to do so.

Hunter Greene Seeing Reds again. Hunter Greene is filthy and this finally seems to be the year his stuff actually results in production. During an extremely disappointing 2023 camapaign, Greene demonstrated the abilty to throw heat, but the 4-seam itself was wild and had too much movement. Now Greene is back with a 4-seam fastball that went from a -12 run value to a 9 run value. The secret? His 4-seam is signficantly flatter, going from 13 inches of vertical movement to to 11.4, and 11.6 inches of horizontal movement to 8.9. When you have this type of velocity, sometimes all you want is a flat fastball that feels like it's rising. This kind of straight cheese is working for Greene.

Max Fried Now Fried's statcast is exactly what you want to see from an ace that doesn't have overwhelming stuff. His ability to induce ground balls at a 98th percntile rate and to limit hard hits to a 96th percentile rate shows regression is much more unlikely. Max is currently a 7 pitch pitcher:

The wild part is, 4 of the 7 pitches sport a positive run value. And even with a -1 run value on the curveball, it still boasts a fantastic .189 BA against and 34.7 whiff%. The secret to Max's success right now is that his fastball is one of the flattest in all of baseball, but the rest of his aresenal has dramatic vertical movement:

Max is putting on a piching masterclass in the vein of what you see with Nola.

Chris Sale+ Look, Chris Sale has never been bad at any point of his career. Even in 2023, coming off injury, he still managed a 1.13 WHIP. He may be 35, and coming off 100 different injuries, but he's still Chris Sale, and Chris Sale is amazing. I originally had him in B tier due to injury concerns, but I decided that shouldn't have any bearing on this list - what he's currently doing is remarkable, and completely expected from someone as talented as Sale. His slider hasn't looked this good since 2018:

B Kyle Bradish+ Bradish is about as close to A tier as one can get and I honestly feel bad putting him here, but right now he has 0 quality starts on the season and that's just not what you want to see. However, he's only pitched in 4 games thus far and he's still getting stretched, so there's no need to worry going forward. The innings will come, and with them, quality starts. So what has Bradish done to improve his peripherals? Well, on top of getting slightly more extension, he's drastically changed his pitch mix:

In 2023, he threw his excellent slider 31% of the time and his sinker only 20% of the time. This year, he's completel reinveted himself, throwing the Sinker 40% of the time and his slider 30% of the time. Even though the slider is worse this year, his sinker seems to be the more effective primary pitch, as he's now inducing ground balls at a 92nd percentile rate.