Marsh is not a pitcher, but you should grab him anyway. Baseball is finally back, and I apologize to anyone reading this (nobody reads this) for not posting earlier in the season. I drafted a really nasty fantasy team this year using statcast, and I should have shared my value picks right off the bat because holy shit have they paid off. I drafted Ranger Suarez, Jordan Hicks, and Kutter Crawford really late, and I even reached for them. Now, my roster is absolutely dominant because somehow I managed to snag three potential aces while loading up on my lineup early. But it's never too late to start, right?
Starting Pitchers:
Ranger Suarez
Reports out of training camp were that Ranger Suarez is healthy for the first time in years, and poised to have a possible breakout season for PHI. I looked into this a bit, and I wound up agreeing with the premise. Though Ranger had rough 2022 and 2023 campaigns from a statcast perspective, it turns out he showed a low of promise in 2021. His statcast featured numbers similar to what you'd see from the 2024 statcast shown above. I snagged Ranger at pick 277 in a 14 team Yahoo league and he's currently my best pitcher - and on a roster featuring Glasnow. If he's still available, get him.
Luis Gil
As a Yankee fan myself, I've been keeping my eye on Gil for a few years. In 2021, he was called up to make a few starts to stabilize an absolutely decimated Yankees rotation. The kid was absolutely electric, albeit a bit wild with his pitches. He may have been the Yankees most interesting pitching prospect at the time, featuring a fastball that flirted with 100 mph. He pitched one game in 2022 before having surgery to repair a torn UCL. He missed all of 2023. Flash foward to 2024 and Gil looks better than he did pre-surgery. His average fastball tops out at 97 MPH with wicked movement and his 93rd percentile K percentage is absolutely filthy. When you watch Gil pitch, you see a future ace. The stuff is that good. Just know he will walk a ton of batters, and there will be games where he's punished for this. But also expect games where he Ks 7+ batters regularly.
Bryan Woo
Woo hasn't pitched a single inning in 2024, but don't let that stop you from grabbing him. He's currently on the 15 day IL with elbow inflammation, but is poised to return in a week or two. Looking at his 2024 statcast, there's argument to be made he could wind up being the best pitcher on this Mariners rotation. His ability to limit hard contact is elite, and he's also pretty good at making batters miss with a 65th percentile Whiff %. There's also room for improvement in his second year, especially if he can get more batters to chase out of the zone. As far as analytics for a rookie, Woo was very nice. If you showed me Gilbert's, Castillo's, and Kirby's statcasts from 2023 without names attached, I'd probably take Woo.
Kutter Crawford
Kutter had an absolutely beautiful statcast in 2023, featuring an 88th percentile xBA. He hasn't missed a beat in 2024. Kutter has looked absolutely dominant through 3 games, featuring a pristine .57 ERA and a 91st percentile xBA. He's probably not as readily available as he was at the beginning of the season, but grab him if he's there.
Cristopher Sanchez
Christopher Sanchez started the 2024 campaign with an 8 K performance, but got beat up pretty badly in his second start. Don't even worry about that. Instead, just look at his 2023 statcast page. With a 97th percentile Chase %, Sanchez has filthy breaking pitches that can make hitters look silly.
Seriously, check out the break:
With increased velocity this year, Sanchez could be poised to deliver a tremendous campaign. With an elite ability to make people chase, we hope his whiff rate improves and thus his K rate. And his 8 Ks in the season opener demonstrate obvious potential.
Jordan Hicks
People hear the name Jordan Hicks and they think of the closer who threw harder than Aroldis Chapman, but was always injured and never really accomplished anything in the MLB. Hicks has seemingly always had the stuff to be dominant but couldn't quite put it together. In 2024, Hicks has moved away from being a reliever and has settled beautifully into a starting role. He's toned down the velocity on his fastball, averaging 95.7 mph. He averaged 100 mph in 2023. Not only is this obviously allowing him to throw more pitches, but he's throwing pitches with much more control while also not putting his arm at risk of severe injury. And boy has he looked good.
Cody Bradford
Now this is a guy who I knew nothing about, and I was outbid on through waivers. It was crushing, because he looks really damned good. Bradford is interesting, take a look at his 2023 statcast:
Going by his 2023 statcast, Bradford didn't much display much ability beyond being able to limit BBs. So what exactly has he changed to be so dominant? Great question.
See that awful cutter he threw 13% of the time in 2o23? He's now throwing it 1% of the time. See that curveball he's throwing 15% of the time in 2024? He didn't have a curvabell in 2024. See that 4-seam fastball he threw in 2023? It's even better in 2024. This right here is an example of some elite coaching and hard work in the off-season. Snag this dude, I wish I did.
Brady Singer
After a successful 2022 season, Royals fans were hopeful they found their next ace. He showed a ton of promise and finished the campaign with a 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.58 FIP. Then, in 2023, Singer seemingly lost all of the progress he made. He put together some good games and you'd think he was turning a corner, but would then have a game where he kind of just got blown up for 5+ runs. He was a risky stream option at best. This year, he looks much more like his 2022 self. Like Bradford, I checked to see if he's made any changes. He has.
Singer threw his sinker 51% of the time last year for an astounding -12 run value. Yikes. This year? 30% of the time at a run value of 5. His slider is now his primary pitch, going from 42% to 46.7%. And finally, he went from never using his 4-seam fastball to using it nearly 20% of the time. Another pitcher who has changed his approach and reaped the benefits. Joey Wentz
After a solid 2022 debut, I jumped on the Joey Wentz train last year. Boy, did I bust on that pick. He was absolutely terrible. But I really liked the potential of his stuff, and I've been keeping an eye on him this year. Right now he's in the Tigers bullpen, but that could change as the season progresses. He's looked extremely solid, and for teams that are desperate for pitching depth, I think this is a solid pickup if he finds his way back into a SP role. His ability to make players chase, whiff, and barrel shows upside, and his fastball isn't dogshit like it was last year. Keep an eye on him.
John Means
Ah yes, perennially hurt John Means. A pitcher who has always flirted with being quite good, but gets injured every time he starts to put it together. Once again, he's hurt, but he'll be back possibly next week. Make no mistake - he's been absolutely demolished in his rehab games to the tune of a 12 ERA. But I'm not going to pay that any mind. Guys in rehab starts tinker and experiment as if it were spring training, so take his performance with a grain of salt. Means is a guy who can make people chase out of the zone consistently, limit walks, and can go deep into games which gives him QS/W upside. He'll also help ratios. Take a flier on Means if you need depth, and hope he stays healthy.
Keaton Winn
This kid has nasty stuff:
Fantastic velocity and above-average break on his pitches, Winn was impressive for the Giants last season, putting together a 1.04 WHIP. He has a 1.00 WHIP this season. I tend to ignore the ERA because that's not really indicative of just how filthy his stuff is and that will fix itself. If you want a young pitcher with tremendous potential, and that can help your ratios, look no further than Winn.
Ryan Feltner
At 27, Feltner shows some promise for the Rocks. In 2023, he displayed an ability to really limit barrels and hard hits. This season, he's shown an ability to make people swing and miss. So where he really settles, I'm not entirely sure. He's a strange pitcher in that his pitches break a lot less than league average, making his slider almost like a changeup and his fastball is pretty flat. But in an age where everything has tremendous break, his pitch mix and lack of movement might be throwing hitters off - especially if he demonstrates the ability to paint the corners. He struck out 10 Rays in his recent showing, so he's worth a flier.
Luis Severino (?)
Yeah, he's not a hidden gem. Everyone knows about the prince that was promised. He was supposed to be the Yankees next great ace, but injuries destroyed him for years. He was absolutely miserable in 2023, His fastball velocity was down, he had no movement on his pitches, and he just seemed demoralized. Now he's with the Mets in 2024, and there's a few promising things here.
His fastball velocity is elite again. He's limiting walks. He's making people chase. He's incorporating a sinker more more often than he did last year. His pitches have horizontal break.
Look, Severino is a risky play, but we know what he's capable of. If he's fully healthy, he could be easily be elite - and by all means, he looks pretty healthy. He's going to have some dominant starts, and he's going to have blow ups; hopefully he has more of the former. Personally, I think he will, and I'm currently rostering him. Just know he could break at any point, possibly in the middle of a start.
Paul Blackburn
Redditor Graboidxenomorph asked my to look into Blackburn, and so I did. I thought I had seen Blackburn for enough years to know this was a fluke, and didn't bother looking into the peripherals behind the 0.00 ERA. Well, when it comes to baseball, that's stupid. Players can undergo drastic changes year to year. So far in 2024, the changeup has been Blackburn's primary pitch, throwing it 25% of the time. Blackburn only threw his changeup 11% of the time in 2023. His sinker was his primary pitch In 2023 and he used it 23% of the time. Now? Only 9% of the time. And his sinker wasn't good. In fact, it was pretty bad, with a -1 run value. His best pitch is his slider, which he now throws slightly more than last season, going from 18% to 21% - - and it's an amazing slider. His four seamer is up to 19% from 15%, and it's a pretty good pitch.
Paul Blackburn is a much different pitcher than last year, and this could very well mean his current level of production is sustainable. Opposing hitters will get the new scouting report and try to adjust, but I still think he'll have a good year. His changeup isn't amazing, but it's better than his sinker and above all, has a better flow within his pitch mix because it's slow compared to his fastball, and probably looks a lot like like his slider coming out (85 mph on the change, 82 on the slider.) Meanwhile his nice four seam clocks in at 92 with decent vertical movement, but not so much that it looks too much like his changeup, which is just a much better version of his bad sinker. Good job to his pitching coach.
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