To say this has been a weird start to the season is an understatement. For me, Aaron Judge and Bo Bichette have been by far my worst hitters. And looking around the league, there's a lot of very talented guys playing uber-stinky baseball. Meanwhile, I have Ranger Suarez, Jordan Hicks, Kutter Crawford, Luis Gil, and Cristopher Sanchez looking like Gerrit Cole week in and week out.. My statcast analysis has been really, really solid for grabbing pitchers and I hope some of you have reaped the rewards. Let me know who you wound up getting on reddit, I'm curious who was available in your league for data purposes. If you grabbed Turang or Luis Garcia Jr., you're probably also eating well right now too. Today, I'm going to make a list that is still going to feature guys I've previously written about, that are still both widely available and performing at a high level. Some other guys will be making fresh appearances, some guys will be repeats, some guys will be prospects, and some guys are studs who are being dropped. Also, please look at the older articles because not everyone will be repeated, but they are still worth rostering. I just don't have the time to re-list, and it will bloat the write-up. Enjoy.
Luis Garcia Jr., 2B (5% Rostered)
This man has been an absolute god-send for me, but especially this week. Why? He's stolen 4 bases, seemingly out of nowhere. Now that he's both: A) Barreling the ball and B) stealing bases like he's Acuna, he's an automatic add in all formats and leagues.
Luis Gil, SP ( 30% Rostered)
This statcast is being posted without being updated with today's start: he just struck out 9 Rays in 5.2 innings with 0 ER. Expect these analytics to get even stronger.
Yeah, he's insane. He has some of the best stuff in the entire league. If Luis Gil has even a little control over his pitches, he's going to dominate the opposition. He's in contention for having the best fastball in the MLB. Sure, he's going to have wild outings and walk lots of guys in those outings. But he's more often going to dominate with gems like today (as I wrote in my previous write-up.) The upside of Gil is way too high to not roster him.
Keaton Winn, SP ( 5% Rostered)
His statcast may not be as red as you'd like to see, but hear me out. Winn had one terrible start against the Padres earlier in the season that completely destroyed his metrics. Don't let that fool you. See how he has an insane Offspeed and Breaking run values? And how his fastball is seemingly terrible? His fastball isn't terrible, and has a lot of potential to be a genuinely good pitch. It has solid velocity and good horizontal movement. It's simply a matter of locating it, which he did in his last start against Miami, where he pitched a 6 inning, 1.50 ERA quality start. Let's also look at his pitches:
All four of his pitches have well-above average break. His four seam averages 96 mph. If Winn masters his pitch mix, he could be a legitimate rotation piece. People look at Harrison as the young pitcher with the nasty stuff. I look at Winn. And at 5% owned, anyone can take a chance and stream this guy.
Brenton Doyle, OF ( 12% Rostered)
As I type this, Brenton is 2/2 on the day with a SB. Look, I love this guy for the same reasons I love Turang. His sweet spot % combined with his blazing sprint speed allows him to leg out hits most other players can't leg out. They're both incredibly fast coming out of the box. And make no mistake, he has surprising pop that allows him to get triples and home-runs when it hits the sweet spot of his bat. How Doyle is 25% owned is beyond me. You really think this former top prospect, who has a 93rd percentile sprint speed and 100th percentile arm strength isn't a good baseball player and world class athlete? Just grab this guy who is abusing that Rockies altitude. The steals will come.
Jordan Beck, OF (Rockies' #4 Prospect)
Beck is an absolute masher. Through every level of the minors, this man has absolutely destroyed baseballs and put up sexy OPS after sexy OPS. In 2024, he's hitting .290 with a 1.045 OPS at AAA. He also has SB potential, as he put up 20 stolen bases across the minors in 2023. He'll be called up sooner rather than later, and remember: he's going to be playing at Coors. He is an absolute must stash in the NA slot, and if your NA slot is filled, monitor Beck's situation. You don't want to be the guy that doesn't get Jordan Beck, I consider him a potential league-winning prospect. Jose Butto, SP ( 32% Rostered )
Butto looked nearly unhittable through his first two starts, but the real test for me was against the Dodgers. I benched him and patiently watched. He wound up pitching 4.1 innings with 6 Ks, a 4.15 ERA, and a 1.85 WHIP. 6 Ks through 4 innings is clearly impressive, and I expected him to have to battle against the best lineup in the MLB. Though the results were clearly mixed, they were also encouraging. Start Butto comfortably against most teams. The Dodgers are just the Dodgers, but he did manage to K 6 of them through 4.1.
Jonathan Cannon, SP (1% Rostered)
The White Sox #11 prospect debuted against the Royals last week and I managed to catch his entire start. And yes, I watched a White Sox game without being a White Sox fan....I deserve a reward. I really liked what I saw - namely a Sinker with very good movement, a solid pitch mix, and good location. Standing at an imposing 6'6, he had a nice delivery and good tunneling ability. He's struggled with keeping his WHIP down throughout the minors, but he's also succeeded at keeping his ERA down. I can't make you promises, but something tells me his stuff might play better at the MLB level than AAA. He doesn't throw hard, but he throws deceptively. His type of pitching is less common at the MLB level and could keep hitters off balance. Keep and eye on him, and stream if you need to heal your ERA.
Tyler Rogers, RP (9% Rostered)
Let me preface this by saying: He's only valuable in SV+H leagues. He currently has 5 holds on the year, which makes him worth rostering. His 2.89 ERA and 1.07 WHIP are solid, but his peripherals are little dicey. As a submarine pitcher, there's more layers to this than simply peripherals, as hitters clearly have trouble picking up his stuff. I'd roster him if I needed holds. Ryan Feltner, SP ( 3% Rostered )
Feltner just got lit up by the Phillies, giving up 4 earned runs in a tumultuous first inning and 6 earned runs total. You know what else he did? He struck out 8 batters across 5.1 innings. Feltner has really good stuff, and the Phillies have one of the most potent lineups in the entire league. Feltner is worth starting due to the tremendous upside and peripherals, especially outside of Coors field. Stream Feltner if you need Ks, and keep an eye on him as a hold. I know the results haven't been there, but they will be at some point. Just don't start him against the Phillies or Dodgers, you know? Bryan De La Cruz, OF ( 35% Rostered)
Since their horrendous 0-9 start, the Marlins have been playing better baseball. Part of the reason is this man, who is now slashing .296 on the campaign with a .775 OPS. I kept an eye on De La Cruz last year, as he had a nice 96th sweet-spot %. Unfortunately, the power just wasn't there. This year? He's currently barreling the ball at a 91st percentile rate, and hitting the ball hard a 65th percentile rate. His Sweet-spot% has obviously dropped to a modest 56th percentile, but the increase in power is paying dividends. Is he hot, or is the best yet to come? What if he keeps his power, and his sweet-spot% climbs up towards last year's excellent percentile? There's potential here.
Edouard Julien, 2B ( 50% rostered, currently dropping )
I'm fully aware of the fact that Julien is hitting .179 with a .664 OPS. I'm also confident that the best is yet to come for Julien. His statcast just doesn't support how bad he's been this year in terms of production. He's barreling the ball, finding the sweet-spot at an above-average clip, and is one of the best in the MLB and not chasing pitches. This man has all of the tools to be an amazing hitter, which he showed last year:
Julien is going to be fine. His bat talent is remarkable and I'm surprised people are giving up on him this early. Also to note, is check out his fielding run values. Julien was a below-average fielder in 2023. Now? He's a legitimately good 2b, sitting at an 84th percentile run value. The Twins have no reason to give up on Julien because A) his peripherals look good and B) he's now a fantastic fielder. He won't find himself n the bench often, and he will definitely experience some insane positive regression at some point. Whether or not that's on your roster is up to you.
Jonathan India, 2B (60% rostered, currently dropping )
Much like Julien, India's statcast looks much better than his actual production. In fact, his statcast looks stronger than his 2023 page, when he put up a modest .745 OPS with 78 runs. And in this nice Reds lineup, he should be finding even more success. He's clearly seeing the ball well and making good contact, boasting a 89th percentile Sweet-Spot%, but it's just not resulting in hits. His .274 xBA indicates he should clearly be reaching base more, and I expect that to happen at some point. India should wind up being a contributor. Not as much as Julien, in my opinion, but enough to be rostered. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B ( 72% rostered, currently dropping)
I really, really like Ke'Bryan Hayes. Boasting nice peripherals last year, he finished the second half of the year particularly strong. It's clear he sees the ball well, but is currently struggling to make solid contact. Check out his splits in 2023:
A .337 BA in June. A .320 BA in August. A .280 BA in September. And much like this year, he got off to an incredibly slow start. Expect the same thing to happen for Hayes at some point. When he clicks, you better hope he's on your roster.
Tyler Holton, RP ( 5% Rostered)
Holton's peripherals are dominant, and the production has matched: A 1.50 ERA with a .67 WHIP. Oh, and an 8.00 K/BB. Unfortunately, he only has 2 holds thus far on the campaign. I expect this to change as the year progresses. He's simply too good to not find more high leverage work. Continue to monitor the situation.
Travis d'Arnaud, C ( 20% Rostered)
Year after year, d'Arnaud proves to be a reliable hitter at a scarce position. And somehow, he finds himself in absolutely stacked lineups. This year is no different, as he finds himself in a Braves lineup that produces a shit ton of runs. If you need a catcher, grab him immediately. Simple as that.
Harrison Bader, OF ( 6% Rostered)
Before running into the absolute slut that is Tyler Glasnow today, the Mets lineup was absolutely sizzling. Harrison Bader has played a large role in the team's success, slashing a nice .302 BA with 4 stolen bases. The peripherals on Bader look nice. If you're short on outfielders and need to add steals, Bader can be a nice add. He is hitting .317 against RHP and .286 against LHP, but expect his numbers against LHP to drop at some point (unless this is his breakout season).
Wilyer Abreu, OF (3% Rostered)
The above statcast is from 2023, where he absolutely dominated in a limited 76 ABs. This year, he had an extremely rough start which makes his peripherals look quite bad. But over the last week, he's looked exactly like he did in 2023, which is outstanding. The 24 year old #6 prospect for Boston is definitely worth owning based on upside. Tyler Stephenson, C ( 10% Rostered)
Redditor Boringname34 brought Tyler Stephenson to my attention, so I peaked his statcast. It looks really, really good. And above all, people have been kind of watching Stephenson for a few years wondering if he'd live up to the hype. He was expected to have a breakout last year and it didn't really materialize. If these peripherals hold even a little, this will be his breakout year.
BONUS: My Roster (14 team league)
People have asked me what my team actually looks like, so here you go. And yes, I do not own any relievers. I've opted for a dominant starting rotation and a deep bench for platooning. I will lose SV+Holds for the rest of the year, and I'm totally fine with that.
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