I'm sure by now, a lot of you are thinking of ways to finesse your way into an advantageous spot. That often means offering straight trash for struggling star players, hoping they immediately figure it out as soon as their ass lands on your roster. Let me tell you right now - nobody is going to take trash unless they're a league taco. But still, let's see which players potentially fulfill that fantasy.
Bo Bichette
Unfortunately, I am indeed a Bo Bichette owner. As you can see below, it has not been a pleasant experience. Bo has seen more games on my bench than basically any other player I own, and I'm beginning to wonder if he'll turn it around.
But I shouldn't be wondering. I shouldn't let the negativity creep in. This dude has been one of the better hitters in the MLB for years, and he hasn't just suddenly lost the ability to make quality contact....right? Right. Bo is going to be fine. As far as I can tell, there's zero underlying medical issues that could be responsible for this. Let's look at this:
There you have it. Bo Bichette hit .267 against breaking pitches and .333 against offspeed pitches last season? Now. He's hitting .125 and .091. We see these types of issues all the time with good players at the beginning of a seaoson - it's simply a timing adjustment waiting to happen when it comes to missing breaking balls. The minute his eyes start recognizing sliders and what not, he'll stop chasing them out of the zone and ruining his at bats. It's quite literally the issue Judge has had with sliders. Overall, i'd say Bo Bichette has been so bad, and owners are so frustrated, that you could get Bo right now for a player that you deem to be overperforming on your roster. He'll find the sweet spot of the bat eventually.
Corbin Carroll
Quite similarly to Bo, Carroll isn't whiffing or K'ing, meaning he's seeing the ball an putting the bat on it, but it's simply not going anywhere. Bo and Corbin are miserably missing the sweet spot of their bat, while also putting gthe bat on the ball pretty often. Baseball is a game of inches when it comes to hitting that sweet spot, and they're both just slightly off.
However, unlike Bo, it's fastballs that are destroying Carroll. He's gone from a .296 BA in 2023 to .167 in 2024 against fastballs. The timing will come for Carroll, and when it does, the positive regression will hit hard.
Matt Olson For Olson, the peripherals are actually there, but the production isn't. I find this statcast to be extremely encouraging, and it makes Matt Olson maybe the #1 buy low candidate. There's not much else to say - he's just been unlucky. If you can get him on any kind of discount, take it.
Jose Ramirez
Here we have another player in the same vein of Bo and Carroll, a guy who can't find the sweet spot of the bat to save his life right now. In fact, i'd argue Jose has overproduced in relaton to his peripherals, so good for Ramirez owners! The fact that there has been some production makes him a bit of a harder buy-low, I have to imagine there are some owners out there not happy with a .741 OPS and .261 BA. I know I wouldn't be.
I find it pretty interesting that Jose has actually hit .346 against offspeed in 2024, after hitting only .260 in 2023. However, his BA against fasbtalls has dropped from .311 to .250. If there's one thing I can guarantee, it's that he won't be awful against fastballs for long. And if he can keep his improvement against offspeed going, he could have a huge year.
Jazz So let's address something immediately: Jazz has been healthy for an entire month to begin the 2024 campaign. That right there is the #1 thing any owner brave enough to draft Jazz could hope for. With only 214 ABs in 2022 and 352 ABs in 2023, we haven't see a full sample size for Jazz in years. But now he's 26, seemingly healthy, and hopefully going to put together a full season. So has he been successful thus far? Not really. Nobody is drafting Jazz hoping for this kind of production. But he's too talented and electric to not have great stretches of games if he can remain healthy. He's also looked much better over the last week and showing some encouraging signs. I think Jazz can be had for a fairly low price, but please be cautious - his injury risk is very real until he proves it's not.
Anthony Santander Here we have an acutally nice buy-low candidate, in that I could see even the most stubborn of owners actually selling him. Santander's statcast is interesting in that his power peripherals have sharply declined while his sweet spot % has risen tremendously. In 2022, he had a 48th percentile sweet-spot % and hit 33 HRs. In 2023, he had a 35th percentile sweet-spot % and hit 28 HRs. This year? 86th percentile, and has still managed to hit 4 dingers despite signficantly lower Barrel and Hard Hit percentages. So how should this be interpereted? To me, this shows he clearly wanted to take his game to the next level and adjust his swing to find that sweet-spot more often. This may simply be growing pains leading up to his best camapaign yet: what if he manages to retain that sweet-spot% while finding even some of the power stroke he clearly posseses? In this Orioles lineup, he's certainly worth a chance.
Carlos Correa Buy buy buy buy. I think he's back. I'm not sure most people know this, but Carlos played through Plantar Fascitis last season and it it really destroyed him at the plate. If anyone has dealt with the pain and limited mobility of this ailment, they'll tell you it's definitely something that hinders every aspect of mobility. And should we really be surprised this was the case? Correa is just not a .230 hitter, period. He's extremely talented and through 36 ABs, at only age 29, Carlos has looked like a premiere hitter again. The sample size is small, but for me, it's easier to believe last year was an anomoly than believing he's just suddenly washed. Let's just hope he stays healthy.
Seiya Suzuki The best buy-low candidates are the injured ones. For many owners, it's hard to recover from losing a player like Seiya for a month, especially if the team begins to struggle. I know we say it's a long season, but a bad month can be the reason one misses the playoffs. If the Seiya Suzuki owner in your league starts to get desperate, do what you can to get him. But of course, you should only do this if you have a strong roster, a winning record, and the ability to wait a month without falling behind in the standings.
Josh Jung Much like Seiya, Jung is currently on the IL for another month at least. He was actually dropped in my league for a guy that was desperate for an IL spot, which is absolute insanity. And luckily for me, I grabbed him. I firmly believe Josh Jung is on his way to being an easy top 5 fantasy 3B and will absolutely be a league winner granted he comes back healthy. If you can afford to roster him, do it.
Sean Murphy Yet another guy on the IL, and probably at least a month away. But make no mistake - Sean Murphy in that lineup at a normally scarce position can be a league-winner down the stretch. If your resident Murphy owner is struggling at C, considering sending a package of your own catcher and others for Murphy. Then pick up Stephenson or Bailey to hold you over until he's healthy. And you should still pick up those guys to make sure the Murphy owners continue to struggle, as they are extremely strong options at C that could save a Murphy owner's season. I know it sounds bad, but playing keep away is a viable fantasy strategy. In fact, I lean into it heavily: Right now I own Adley, Yainer, Will Smith, Tyler Stephenson, AND Bailey. Yeah, I now own 6 players with C eligibility, with several of them platooning in utility spots for me. And this is while guys are rolling out catchers with mendoza line averages. If they want any chance at winning, they'll have to come to me for help.
Maikel Garcia
At age 24, you really couldn't ask for nicer peripherals. Unfortunately, the production hasn't come for Maikel, despite a .272 xBA and a .460 xSLG. And because he wasn't very good last year, some owners may see his production and be keen to give up on him. There's definitely an opening for some finesse here if you believe in the analytics. I may try to snag him myself.
Corey Seager
With a .238 BA and a .642 OPS, Seager owners have to punching the air. After a spectacular breakout season for Seager, he's been nothing but disappointing thus far. He seemed like a sure bet at SS to put up ridiculous production and carry teams to a championship, but instead has been a detriment. I understand this being a Bo owner, but fortunately for Seager owners, the peripherals do seem to be there. He's doing everything pretty well at the plate, but not at the level he did last year. His 90th+ percentiles have become 70th+ percentiles, and combined with some bad luck, his productiin has really faltered. But even if he stays a 70th percentile hitter in some of the major categories, he should still be productive. However, I believe this is what a cold and unlucky Seager looks like, and the best is yet to come.
Spencer Steer
Steer has a modest campaign thus far - a .253 BA coupled with a .799 OPS. But the potential for more is clearly there when you look at the peripherals. Steer is definitely a high upside buy in lineup that will contunue to produce run and RBI opportunities.
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